Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Provide an update to the bull market Support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Check out into the cryptoverse premium At into the cryptiverse.com we do have Several different tiers available Including a free one so make sure you Check it out links in the description Below Let's go ahead and jump in so this is Actually somewhat of an interesting time To provide an update to the bull market Sport band because we actually have our First weekly open and close above Both the 20-week SMA and the 21 week EMA For the first time since March of 2022. Okay Furthermore This move here We actually have seen some Follow-through at least so far right I Mean it's hard to say what this week's Going to bring but at least so far we Have seen follow through which was not The case over here back in March of 2022 And we even said back then that you know Despite the fact that we broke above the You know the the 20-week SMA we were Still likely going to get rejected by The 200-day which is in fact ultimately
Where we got rejected from we had the Higher lows the failure to put in a Higher low after the rejection of the 200 SMA and we ended up going down and You know what's interesting is is Despite all of the you know sort of all Of the the hype and everything that we Had throughout 2022 Everything was ultimately just a failed Rally right Throughout throughout 2022 and what You'll notice is that literally every Step of the way it was just yet another Rejection Right around the bull market support ban Or again if you prefer the bear Market Resistance band now for the first time In quite a long time we find ourselves Above This level so then it sort of Raises the question well what does that Mean going forward well to understand What it potentially could mean going Forward we can always look to see what It has historically meant Um what it what it meant in the last two Cycles was different than what it meant In the first one so at least start start With trying to understand that if you go Look at what it meant in 20 2019 it Meant we had a rally for a while but Unfortunately we did not back test the Bull market support ban quickly and we Ended up just falling below it and Having another like eight or nine month
Bear market right so that's what Happened in 2019 once we passed it 2015 was a different story this one we Rallied above it we actually had one Weekly close above it and then and we Had a full candle here above it and then We ultimately just came back down to to Some of the prior lows right we don't Really have a ton of data points and if You go look at 2011 2012 it was actually Let me switch it over to um one that Actually has that data because this one Doesn't so if we go back to the 2011 2012 time frame once we got back above It we we more or less just we rallied Above it we came back down held it out Of support for a while and then we we Started a new a new cycle or a new bull Market I should say so what does that Mean for today so so first of all we Should note that we don't really have a Ton of data points okay out of the last Three Phases where we you know came out of a Bear Market a year-long bear Market or Something you know two of those times The first attempt was not held one of Those attempts we rallied a lot higher One of those times we we basically Started correcting at this point and we Failed to hold it but at least the last Two tries last two cycles coming off of That that primary bear Mark a year It wasn't able to hold on the first
Attempt I would say you know and we've Sort of generally seen this the more That it rallies before retesting it Right so like you know you can see over Here in 2019 and and of course you know There's the 2020 run I don't think we're Anywhere near a 2020 type run right now But one of the things you'll notice is That when it rallies a lot without back Testing it it tends to not hold when it Retests but look over here right it did Not Rally that much and then we Ultimately held it as support on the Back test look at what happened in 2017 Right we never rallied too far above it And then we just kept back testing it Holding it as support and continuing on So I would say that the further we go Above it the less likely we'll Eventually hold it the sooner we go back There's uh there's at least a higher Probability I would argue that we could Actually try to hold it as support But one of the other you know one of the Things to look at I think it's always Important to look at these things a few Different ways and and think about what Strategy you're going to employ because I see a lot of comments about people Trying to figure out you know what Strategy should they go with should they You know should they try to time Something exactly uh sub before if you Go back and watch any of my videos for
Years and years and years a DCA strategy In and a DCA strategy out is is Typically the best thing to do even if You think the price is going to go lower Or or whatever DCA usually wins over the Long Haul because and we said that back Over here right even even though Um you know I said I thought we were Going to see some type of a breakdown in November it doesn't change the fact that That a DCA strategy isn't isn't Worthwhile uh over the long holiday as Long as you have sort of a long enough Outlook but one of the things I wanted To point out Is you can look at this in a number of Different ways but one of the ways you Can look at it is a range right and with The top part of that range being around That 24 to 25k level and the bottom part Of that range being at around that 17 to 18K level and you could argue that this Was a deviation below the range Okay and if we make it up to the top of The range which is not that much higher Than we currently are then That's going to be some you know an Interesting level of resistance doesn't Mean you can't deviate above it though In the same way so I understand there's A lot of emotion there's a lot of you Know hype right now but until proven Otherwise right we we do remain in in Some type of a range that's been going
On since June of of 2022 and I would be looking for What happens when we get a pullback Right whenever that occurs whether it's This week a month from now two months From now when we get a pullback are we Able to hold this as support It ranges right now from around 18.7 K To around 20K Okay so it's about a thirteen hundred Dollar range That's where it currently stands that Would be the line of the sand that the Bulls would want to to hold In order to see a you know a much more Sustained move to the upside but again The the quicker it goes to the upside Then it likely just means where there's Going to be more pain later on one of The things that we that we mentioned and We've said this a number of times is That we've had three primary bear Market Years right three of them 2014 2018 and 2022 and it's really not any more Complicated than that right you had 2014 2018 And 2022. After those primary bear Market years we Then more or less went sideways 2019 was Sort of sideways although there was a Bit more price action in both directions Um than 2015 and so you know you're Looking at 2023 And you know one of the things that I I
Said last year in 2022 I said it quite Frequently was that cash was King right I can say cash I think cash is King all The time Um you know the fed's raising interest Rates at the most aggressive rate we've Really ever seen them they're going Through period of quantitative Tightening rolling off assets from the Balance sheet and and we just simply Know that in periods like that cash is King where does it stand in 2023 well as I said a few weeks ago right I think That and I I think there's going to be Phases this year where it's king and Phases where it's not like there are Going to be some moves to the upside Just like we saw back over here in 2015 And in 2019 but at the end of the day I think it's just going to be building Out some type of a macro base is I would Say the path of least resistance okay Now there's also sort of this discussion As to you know ultimately can it come Back down and re-test those history Shows us that it does tend to do that Right you see in 2015 we also sort of Saw it in 2019 but was actually a much It was a higher low it wasn't really a Double bottom it was a higher low And so you know right now I think that We're likely to sort of in this choppy Range for a while and and that's likely Going to be the path of least resistance
For a bit and you know there's also I Sort of I see all sorts of discussions About you know whether the bottom is in Or not look no I mean we have two Examples right we have 2015 we have 2019. in 2019 the bottom was already in In 2015 it wasn't and the bottom came Actually in January of of 2015. so my Point is that you are likely going to Have a year where it's painful for both Sides so you know we've looked at some Of the monthly returns for Bitcoin in 2015 and 2019 one of the things you'll Notice is that you you typically spend About half the year Um with with red months and half the Year with green months so they're not All necessarily back to back but about Half the time it's painful for the Bears About half the time is painful for the Bulls that way everyone gets Equivalently equivalently wrecked before Or you know typically the next bull Market starts right so the Bulls get Wrecked the Bears Get Wrecked and then By the time you get to the next Bitcoin Having everyone's wrecked Um and then you know when you actually See that move to New all-time highs no One really believes it because everyone Just spent the last two years getting Wrecked so That is um uh something to consider is That it will likely be painful for you
Know for the both the Bulls and the Bears for a large duration of this year And and clearly it's it's starting out For a point with the bulls with Bitcoin Rallying a significant amount here in um In January and as we you know as we Previously discussed they'll will likely Be deviations in both directions as We've seen every year following a Primary bear Market year so right now Bitcoin is is at 22.7 again the bull Marks four pan is around 18 7 to 20K so If you do see a pullback in the next Couple of weeks that would be the area To look for if we rally on up to 25k Um You probably will find some Resistance there but again you can Deviate to the upside in the same way That you can deviate to the downside Right something to remember Um as we continue to push forward and Again you know the the last thing I'll Say We've been doing a lot of macro videos Recently so I see some comments people Saying well you know how can the price Rally if if a recession is coming look Guys we've been talking about the Recession risk You know basically since the summer of 2022 but what have we also set what have We also said They're indicators like the inversion of The yield curve right like the inversion
Of the two you know the 10-year three Month and tenure When you get the inversion you're not Usually in a recession it means one is Likely going to come eventually right we Also had an inversion in 2019 right but It still took a while before we actually Got that well I mean we got the very Brief recession in 2020. I'm not going To argue about whether it predicted or Not but Um I I think you have to remember that if You're in the camp that a recession will Eventually come Doesn't mean it's going to come tomorrow It could come four months from now or Six months from now or 12 months from Now right the inversion of the two year And the tenure happened back in July and Even though it happened in July Bitcoin Still rallied to 25k right back over Here it still rallied to 21k from from 18K even with the inversion so you can Still see price action do all sorts of Things even if it looks like something Like that's coming It's just markets take a long time to Really play out right and it takes a Long time for the rate hikes to be felt By the economy and the market goes Through all sorts of phases of pricing Various things Um in into it right so I mean things are
Priced in the market Um in in very different ways over very Long periods of time and so that's what I would argue is you know you can always See moves to the upside and perhaps you Know I mean if you think back to to what Happened in 2020 This here was sort of a I mean it was a Very brief recession you know I still Remember In this range back over here there were Actually a lot of people that were quite Bullish going into early 2020 and you Know if you go back and look at what People were saying back then a lot of Signals were flashing that this was the Start of the new bull market right Um I wasn't as convinced right like I I did Not think this was the you know this was The start over here I was you know Really making a lot of videos saying hey It looks like we're we're getting moving But to be completely Fair It went up a lot quicker than I thought It was going to right so one thing To keep in mind is that this here Happened this is what happened during The only recession that we have For have had for Bitcoin I was very very Brief okay so you could always see Something similar right where you know Where Bitcoin spends a while in this Range and then it you know it eventually
Comes down into a um Into a recession and you know it could Sweep the lows it could put in a higher Low could put in a lower low but again No matter what you need to have a Strategy and you need to stick to it I Think uh for quite a long period of time To be successful in crypto historically Time is what is the most important thing In crypto I mean we have a thousand Different indicators you can look at but The the main secret to crypto has never Been that complicated right the main Secret to crypto is just don't leave Right like just don't leave that's the Hardest part it's the hardest part for a Lot of people is is to just simply not Leave Um so you know what I think is that this Year will likely be a bit of a choppy Year I do understand there's costs for Echo Bubbles and rallies back up to like 45k and stuff but I think there's a good Chance that Bitcoin is just going to be Building out some type of a macro base Here over the course of this year and And and I think that the next sustained Bull run with a real chance of going to New highs will occur after the the yield Curve the inversion of the yield curve Is resolved okay it'll probably occur After that between now and then going to Be some very choppy behavior in both Directions
Um so that's sort of what I'm I'm Thinking As we continue to move forward but again If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up we do have into the Crypto versus premium at into the Cryptiverse.com see you guys next time Bye
