Foreign Bureau weekly crypto review here at this Week's top headlines in the crypto news Crypto rally continues BTC blows past 23k while bulls and bears debate where Crypto prices are headed next what was The cause of the recent rally and when Will the correction come What the fud the crypto Community Breathes a collective sigh of relief After the doj announces it's going after A niche crypto exchange here's why the Real thud could be much more terrifying Ethereum's new uncertainty developers Reportedly considered delaying Withdrawals of staked eth as the highly Anticipated Shanghai upgrade approaches How could this impact eth's price Bearish catalysts incoming Genesis Officially files for bankruptcy crypto Banks face scrutiny and VC investors Prepare for over 100 billion dollars of Vesting everything you need to know Job Cuts intensify big Tech and big Banks announce Mass layoffs amid Rising Interest rates and economic uncertainty Does this mean the FED is about to Pivot And some words of wisdom from the one And only Mr Benjamin Cowan all this and More in just a moment Good morning afternoon or evening thank You for tuning in my name is guy and What you're about to see is educational Content not Financial advice you can
Find any topics you're looking for using The timestamps in the video timeline and Now for today's top stories Last week the crypto Market continued Its epic rally with Bitcoin leading the Charge the total crypto market cap Exploded past one trillion dollars as Coins and tokens hit their highest price Points in months According to coin glass over 300 million Dollars of short positions were Liquidated now this pales in comparison To the billions of dollars of short Liquidations in the previous week but The short squeeze effect was the same Traders who bet that the crypto Market Would go down had to buy the cryptos They bet against to cut their losses and This buying pressure contributed to the Rally the crypto that rallied the most Out of the top 100 was Aptos rising over 60 percent in the last seven days This rally appears to have been due to a Combination of a short squeeze and the Popularity of Aptos in Asia specifically China Yesterday was Chinese New Year and this Could have played a role in apt's pump Besides that there don't seem to be any Crypto-specific factors that cause the Market to move higher there's been Speculation that whales are manipulating The markets to cash out This is because many of the altcoins
That pumped the most have VC unlocks Coming up more about that later Now as most of you know the crypto Market is highly correlated to the stock Market as it so happens the stock market Has been rallying over the last few days As well This is because investors are expecting The FED to signal that it will be Pausing or lowering interest rates at Its next meeting on the 1st of February Investors have this expectation because Central banks have ultimately been Raising interest rates to fight Inflation and inflation has been coming Down in recent months the thing is that Central banks seem to believe that tight Labor conditions could lead to another Wave of inflation more about that later Too In any case it's quite clear that the Crypto Market is getting overheated Although there was a bit of a correction Last week most cryptocurrencies are now Substantially overbought on longer term Time frames not just short-term time Frames not only that but there seem to Be some divergences forming Btc's price is poking above the Bollinger band range and the RSI is over 80 on the weekly both are signs that BTC Is overbought on the long term Meanwhile btc's trading volume has been Declining while its price has been
Rising this Divergence between price and Volume suggests a reversal is coming Now the caveat is that the two lines on The macd are still fairly far apart this Means we could see another week or two Of positive price action before a real Reversal occurs You can learn more about how to spot Local tops and Trend reversals by Checking out our technical analysis Tutorials in the description now as I Mentioned a few moments ago there was a Small correction in the crypto market Last week this was caused by the sudden Announcement that the United States Department of Justice or doj would be Announcing a quote International crypto Enforcement action in a few hours time Crypto Twitter immediately started to Speculate which crypto company the doj Was after many suspected binance or Tether in part because both have faced Scrutiny from U.S authorities before and In part because Sam bankman freed may be Sharing sensitive information about both With authorities more about that in the Description I digress Now this speculation turned to Terror When binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao tweeted The number four For context earlier this month CZ Tweeted a list of things that people Should focus on and number four was Ignore the thud naturally crypto Twitter
Assumed that CZ was confirming that Binance was about to get hit the crypto Market immediately started to crash Until the doj revealed that the crypto Company it was cracking down on was a Random Russian exchange called bitzlato Now bitslotto allegedly laundered Hundreds of millions of dollars using Cryptocurrency and yet even crypto ogs Didn't know the exchange existed the Crypto Market immediately Shrugged off The fund and continued to climb but it Seems that crypto Traders haven't been Paying close enough attention to the Headlines as reported by cointelegraph And others binance was one of Bitslotto's top counterparties at least According to U.S authorities to be clear This doesn't mean that binance was Involved in or even aware of what Bitslotto was up to indeed binance may Even have been instrumental in providing The information required for the feds to Take down bits Lotto be that as it may This whole episode does underscore the Fact that crypto exchanges and companies Have been facing extreme scrutiny ever Since FTX and Alameda collapsed and that More enforcement actions could be coming It's important to point out that this Scrutiny doesn't just apply to Centralized crypto entities either the United States Securities and Exchange Commission or SEC recently claimed that
Mango markets is defy governance token Is a security meaning it needs lots of Regulation now while this claim was made In a multi-million dollar lawsuit Against the infamous mango markets Exploiter it nonetheless suggests that The SEC has its eyes set on crypto Projects as well as companies consider That half of the sec's crypto Enforcement actions in 2022 were against Crypto icos The Silver Lining is that the SEC likely Won't make a move on any large kryptos Until its lawsuit against Ripple has Been resolved Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently said that the Lawsuit will be resolved by June until Then be aware that every crypto besides BTC is fair game for the SEC including God forbid proof of stake eth Speaking of which some ethereum Developers are reportedly considering Delaying withdrawals of staked eth to a Later ethereum upgrade for reference Withdrawals of stake teeth were expected To be enabled with the Shanghai upgrade Which is tentatively scheduled for some Time in March as almost all of you will Know ethereum initially launched its Proof-of-stake Beacon chain way back in December 2020. Since that time 16 million eth worth Over 25 billion dollars have been Deposited into the staking smart
Contract and validators have been unable To claim Rewards or withdraw their Stakes as explained by decrypt Shanghai Is still scheduled for March but a small Group of ethereum developers believe That eth withdrawals should be delayed This is basically because the way eth Withdrawals will be coded will require All the eth withdrawal code to be Rewritten at a later date to be exact Ethereum developers were planning on Allowing East withdrawals with the Shanghai upgrade using Code that will Have to be Rewritten as part of the Cancun upgrade later this year this is Not ideal but most ethereum developers Argue that delaying withdrawals would be Much worse conversely a small group of Developers argue that rewriting the Original withdrawal code will not only Take lots of time and effort but could Cause technical issues and exploits for Ethereum further down the line as such They believe withdrawals should be Delayed until the final withdrawal code Is complete now if I understand Correctly ethereum developers are Currently planning on proceeding with The original plan which is to allow East Withdrawals using Code that will have to Be Rewritten this is good news for Ethereum stakers who've been waiting for Over two years to withdraw but it could Be bad for eth take a second to consider
That eth's price was around six hundred Dollars when the beacon chain launched This means that early eath stakers are Sitting on massive profits of almost 3x That they probably will want to cash out It's a little bit more nuanced than that But I'll explain in my ethereum update Later this week now at the same time There are many eth stakers who are Holding on to massive losses and are Desperate to cash out to meet debt Obligations and whatever else lots of This kind of cell pressure could come From exchanges given that they're some Of the largest ethereum validators and Are strapped for cash the good news is That there will apparently be limits on How much eth validators can withdraw Each Epoch which should limit any cell Pressure from these entities the bad News is that we're currently in a crypto Bear market and that means even a small Amount of consistent selling could Impact eth's price the catch is of Course that eth could see a short Squeeze from leveraged Traders if its Price fails to plummet after withdrawals Are enabled I suppose this ultimately Depends on what eth's price looks like At that time and that is really anyone's Guess Now one reason that I remain skeptical Of this current rally is because crypto Fundamentals haven't changed in fact
They've only gotten worse Crypto trading firm Genesis has finally Filed for bankruptcy and reportedly owes Anywhere between 1 and 10 billion Dollars to creditors You can bet it will be selling whatever Assets it has more importantly the Implosion of Genesis suggests that its Parent company digital currency group or Dcg could be the next Domino to fall as Some of you may know dcg owes three Billion dollars to creditors and CEO Barry silbert has been using his Restructuring experience to prevent its Bankruptcy it's possible that allowing Genesis to go under was part of Barry's Plan but then again it's only added to The sense that dcg is in deep trouble Additional evidence can be found in the News that crypto news site coindesk Which is owned by dcg is up for sale the Asking price is apparently 200 million Dollars assuming the rumors on crypto Twitter are true then coindesk may be Acquired for a lot less this begs the Question of how much dcg's 500 million Dollar VC portfolio will be worth to Buyers I bet it won't be 500 million Dollars and that means dcg may not be Able to acquire the capital it needs to Stay solvent on that note you may recall That cryptobank silvergate recently Experienced a bank run it's now been Revealed that silvergate had received a
3.6 billion dollar loan from U.S home Loan Banks the loan was reportedly given In Q4 last year when silvergate rushed To honor withdrawals which is not a good Sign and Signature Bank also received a 10 billion loan from U.S home loan banks In Q4 2022 What's concerning is that signature is Being used by binance for Swift Bank Payments and signature recently set a Minimum limit of 100K for USD Swift Transfers citing its desire to decrease Its exposure to crypto now regardless of The reason why signature made this move The fact that crypto banks have exposure To the U.S housing market is likely to Result in heightened regulatory scrutiny Imagine a scenario where a crypto Bank Can't repay its loan to home loan banks That would be an instant Crackdown in my Book if that wasn't bad enough Cryptocurrencies that were heavily Funded by Venture capitalists or VCS are Scheduled to experience 2023 token Unlocks totaling 102 billion dollars as Per reporting by crypto slate make no Mistake the cell pressure coming from Early investors will cause most of these Cryptos to tank This is why it's hard for me to believe That the current crypto rally is Sustainable and why I still see lower Lows coming for the crypto Market in the Short to medium term it's also the
Absence of bullish catalysts such as the Mica crypto regulations in Europe the Release of which has been delayed to April More about Mica and other upcoming Bullish crypto catalysts in the Description Now I'll remind you that it's not just Crypto specific factors that could move The market in the coming months there's No shortage of macro factors that could Do the same and the most significant is Of course the ongoing interest rate Increases by central banks especially The Federal Reserve Rising interest Rates have the Practical effect of Making existing debt more expensive and Making borrowing even more difficult Logically this means that industries That are most reliant on debt funding Like housing and Technology will be the Most affected and this is exactly what We've seen so far last year big tech Companies started reporting significant Losses of Revenue now they're starting To cut jobs and they're not cutting any Corners Google recently announced it would be Laying off six percent of its entire Global Workforce which is truly Unprecedented in terms of raw numbers That's 12 000 people This is not far off from the five
Percent Workforce cut that Microsoft is In the process of performing in Microsoft's case the head count is Closer to ten thousand Amazon also Announced it would be firing 18 000 Employees but this is just a fraction of Amazon's total Workforce in percentage Terms for now if you watched our video About the fed's most recent minutes You'll know that the central bank is Concerned that the ongoing labor Shortage will cause a Resurgence of Inflation this is simply because a labor Shortage means that employees can ask For larger paychecks and this means more Spending this is why fed chairman Jerome Powell has been so obsessed with Bringing the demand for labor back in Line with the supply of it in Practical Terms this means creating a recession to Increase unemployment which is why Investor consensus around an upcoming Recession is at record highs this is Also why the news that companies of all Kinds have been collectively laying off Hundreds of thousands of employees has Been paradoxically positive for the Markets the thing is that these layoffs Have been concentrated in the most Interest rate sensitive sectors namely Technology in other areas of the economy The labor market is still extremely Tight with the average pay raise being Well above the fed's inflation Target of
Two percent this means that the FED will Have to continue raising interest rates And keep them higher for longer until The rest of the economy reacts and this Could take months Unfortunately investors do not seem to Be pricing in this reality which could Make the Revelation that much more Painful then again I'm no macro analyst So I could be completely wrong here Still my research For an upcoming video About governments defaulting on debts Tells me I may be onto something Stay tuned for that video And with all that said let's now get the Thoughts of Ben Karen as we head into Another week Hey guy thanks again for having me as Always it's a pleasure to be here I First wanted to start talking about the Fear and greed Index this is something That a lot of people in crypto follow But it's interesting because we actually Just got back to a neutral level so the Fear and greed index now sits at 50. now Something that I thought is is Potentially worthwhile to follow is to This of course is color coding the Bitcoin price by the fear and greed Index and what one of the things you'll Notice is that it can actually stay in The fear and greed like 90s for a long Time right during a run-up you can also Stay in fear for a long time
During the bear market and so one of the Things we can do is first we're going to Remove the color and just look at the Raw value of the fear and greed index as A function of time going all the way Back to 2018 but one of the things we Can do as well is to actually take a Moving average of it like a 30-day Simple moving average and this probably Does a bit better of a job at least of Sort of identifying where are we getting To that sort of that peak level of fear And that peak level of greed rather than Just sitting at 95 for three months you Can see that it it actually takes a Quite a long period of time to read some Of these extreme greed levels and then It sort of slowly trickle down as you go Through this distribution phase but Really the fear and green index say like 30 day SMA of it has been slowly moving Up for a while and most recently it Actually did get to that 50 level In order for us to take out Um you know some of the some of the Recent highs that the fear greeted when I fear and greeted next one to back in March of 2022 it went all the way up to 60. right now so it's about 50. so just Something to think about as we continue To go forward uh with with um with Bitcoin the other thing I wanted to Briefly talk about is the balance price Because and then the realized price
Because the and this was this was Something we followed in the past one of The things you'll notice is that Bitcoin Often spends a significant amount of Time between the balance price and the Realize price during you know during These phases right so if you go back and Look at at 2011 you can see that we were In this range for a while we actually Had several daily closes below the Balance price and you go look at at 2015 You'll see a very similar thing right Daily closes below the balance price but Really the main the main view here is we Just spent a long time between the Realized price and the balance price and Then going back even further into 2018 Same thing right a few daily closes Below it but we spent many many months In this range and actually we spent a Lot longer In this range back in 2015 because in 2015 we first started internet actually In December of 2014 and we didn't really Leave it at any sustained way until Almost a year later so about 10 months Later we did poke our head above it a Couple times right I mean maybe maybe Three three times or so where we went Into the range and we poked our head Above it only didn't fall back into it And you know it sort of just makes you Wonder where is it today it fell into This range back in in June so we've more
Or less been in this range or slightly Above it for about half a year or so Okay so Last cycle it was only about you know a Few months cycle before that it was like 10 months so far it's about half a year So you know this is one of those things That when it's in this range doesn't Mean it can't go you know doesn't mean It can't go lower as as many investors Learned back in in August right this was Sort of one of those false breakouts Where it rallied on up to 25k and it was Above it was above the realized price And then it just sort of slowly came Back down and eventually put in a new Low So right now the range of the realized Price and the balance price which has Sort of been the range that Bitcoin has Been in and prior bear Mark you know at The in the bear markets and in the Accumulation phase currently that range Is from 14.46 K up to 19.79 K so more or less around 14 and a Half K all the way up to 20K is sort of That range Um between the balance price and Realized price and right now Bitcoin is Above the realized price for it to go Back below the realized price we would Have to go you know just a bit below 20K This week if it were going to happen if Of course it happened in several more
Weeks the the prices would obviously Change and then the other thing I wanted To briefly talk about is this portfolio Um you know simulation type thing so if You actually if think about a lot of a Lot of crypto investors like to spend a Lot of time figuring out you know how Are they going to weight their portfolio You know do you wait it by market cap do You wait it equally you know how do you Weight it and of course none of this is Financial advice Um as everyone as everyone should know But just as a useful exercise if you Were to go wait Um you know by the the top 10 Cryptocurrencies back in in say Um you know April 15th of 2020 which is Right around that you know that that Major low that we had back in you know Right before everything took off you'll See that the top 10 cryptocurrencies at The time and what's interesting you know Whether you weighted it by market cap or The square root of market cap Um you know note that taking the square Root means you put less into the larger Market cap project so just waiting it by Market cap would have been 74.5 Bitcoin 10 eth so on and so forth square root of Market cap gets it down to 39 Bitcoin 14 And a half percent each so on and so Forth versus the natural log which is Almost an equal valuation or versus just
Doing it equally what you'll notice is No matter how you waited it While sometimes it would have you know You would have seen different different Levels of performance As of today all three portfolios are all Four portfolios had you started off with A thousand dollars of an initial Investment would all be worth somewhere Between like you know 4.14 K to to 4.49 K right so it really shows that you know Despite all the you know all the Exercises and and you know portfolio Rebalancing and and um or balancing Trying to trying to balance it in Different ways where it's whether it's By market cap or an equal allocation you Know it really does go show at least Over the Long Haul here over the last Cycle the end result as of today would Essentially be the same right it Wouldn't be that much different where it Does become different is is you know in In major run-ups because you know at Various phases Bitcoin can outperform the altcoin Market or all coins cannot form big you Know the Bitcoin market and so that's Just something to consider but this is Maybe maybe useful for for someone to Look at if they're trying to figure out You know what strategies they want to Take on just kind of look back and see What strategies would have worked in the
Past and and where would they have have Stood today had you held on to that Strategy for you know two or three years Anyways thanks again for having me Pleasure to be here as always and I'll See you again next time bye Thank you Ben and don't forget folks That Ben will be hosting Rob from Digital asset news and yours truly on His channel this week for not Financial Advice our weekly live stream show Thursday at 9 00 a.m Eastern Time on Into the cryptoverse I hope you can drop By And that is all for today's coin Bureau Weekly crypto review if you enjoyed it You know what to do hit that like button Subscribe button and Bell icon too If you're looking to maximize your gains During the bear Market the coin Bureau Deals page is where you should go you Can find the link to that resource and Many others in the description below Thank you so much for watching and I Will see you all in next week's episode
