Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be putting back on our on chain analysis Hat and discuss the market value to Realized value z-score or in the rvz Score if you guys like the content make Sure you subscribe to the channel give The video a thumbs up and also check out Into the cryptographs premium at into The cryptiverse.com let's go ahead and Jump in if you're not familiar with the Mvrbz score it's just equal to the Market cap minus the realized cap over They're divided by the standard Deviation of the market cap and one of The reasons I like this indicator is Because it's somewhat aesthetically Pleasing to look at as it tends to Describe the Bitcoin Cycles fairly well And and we go from periods of high mvrbz Scores during Mania phases to low mvrbz Scores during recovery years Accumulation phases Etc and you'll see That in general ebb and from you know Overvaluation to under to over here is Sort of briefly almost coming back to The undervaluation area but we actually Just went straight back up this was the Double Peak cycle of 2013 then back to Undervaluation for the better part of a Year and then over evaluation again Um and and so on and so forth and one of The things you'll notice is that
We tend to visit these lower levels Um a sporadic sporadic time frames you Know I mean this one here was back in November 2011 and then this next one was In January 2015 so maybe about three Years just over three years but then the Time frame from from sort of this area Over here to the next one was closer to To four years and then from here to Where we are you know where we have been Is about four years as well right if you Take it from say like the end of 2018 Early 2019 to the end of 2022 early 2023 You can see that it matches up Um in a in a somewhat similar Manner and This sort of reminds me of of you know When we looked at the mbrp the mvrbz Score in the past back in June it didn't Really seem like you know a low enough Value to to sort of really put a lot of Merit into calling 17.5 as the bottom Because you know it really didn't go Nearly as low as it normally does Um at least what you might expect and And even in November I mean we we talked About getting a crash in November and we In fact got one the NVR Visa score did Go just a bit lower so if we actually Measure this out and take a close look At where it went in June it's around Negative 0.251 and then over here in November I went down to about Point negative 0.36 Now compare that to uh you know 2018 it
Was all the way down at around negative Point Four nine two I believe was the lowest Point negative 0.492 Um and then I think the one before that Was even lower negative 0.598 so Essentially it was negative 5 9 then Negative 4 9 and then this one's not Negative three nine it was a little bit Different it was negative 0.36 so Relatively deep value Um and you know I mean you can see kind Of where it is the the point is really When you look at this is we tend to go To sort of below the zero level for an Extended period of time and then we we Break back above it at some point and um Eventually we go into another parabolic Rally but if we really break this down What we'll see in the first cycle we Went below the zero line popped back Above it and then it actually came below It again for you know quite a long Period of time as we just sort of Consolidated before a true parabolic Rally in 2015 we actually did something A little little bit different you know We came well below the zero line it went Up to Just Around zero popped our head Above zero back below and then back down Again and this was sort of like a um A double Bottom now it doesn't look like A double bottom on this chart because This is only showing daily closes not
Not the actual Wicks that occurred on The Wicks it was more or less a double Bottom but you can see the the mvrb Z-score and where it was it was still Well below zero so you had 2015 which Was more or less just a consolidation Year right a recovery year after after Sort of coming out of a year-long bear Market 2019 arguably would have been or Could have been the same but instead we You know we sort of came below the zero Line for a while then had a massive Rally where Bitcoin essentially went up 4X from the lows followed by about Another what nine month bear Market Before a true parabolic rally into new All-time highs so This was was actually quite a bit Different than what we saw in in 2015 But during March 2020 we actually did Come back below the zero line again and So where are we today well you can see Back in June we came below the zero line Popped our head above came below it Again for a little while uh went Slightly above in November and then we Had the the FTX crash and not very Similar Play but I mean it was essentially a Very similar move like we saw at the end Of 2018 right I mean it wasn't as severe Of a drop as we saw at the end of 2018 But it did start in November and and we Did see a another capitulation so now
The mbrp score is coming in at around 0.3 oh 0.340 so right now the mbrv score Is at around 0.340 so in the context of Where the mvrbz score is likely going to Go in a future parabolic rally it's Still at relatively low levels but in The context of of sort of the cyclical Behavior of Bitcoin I think we're most Likely you know if we were to say what What is this year compare the most to It's not to me it's not the having years Of 20 you know 2012 2016 or 2020 it's Not the bear Market years of 2014 2018 And 2022. it's more so akin to what we Saw in 2015 Which is over here And 2019 which is over here where Essentially and I've I've said this many Times before you spend about half the Year getting the Bears wrecked and half The year getting the Bulls racked now in 2019 it was wreck the Bears for half a Year then rack the Bulls for half a year In 2015 it was wreck the Bears for three Months then wrecked the bullets for Three months then right the Bears for Three months interactables for three Months right so the whole point when you Look at at things like the mvrz score They they help you identify sort of These recovery years these consolidation Years in Bitcoin where unfortunately You're likely not going to see rallies To new Highs but it doesn't mean that
You're not going to be presented with Many opportunities to sort of you know Increase your position in Bitcoin if you Want to I'm sure some Traders swing Trade the sort of the ranges because in Consolidation years you take a look at Like 2015 you know we essentially just Move from Um You know a couple hundred dollars up to You know maybe four hundred dollars or Something like that I don't remember Exactly what it was but something like That and then and then back again Um so I know some shorter term Traders Might take advantage of those ranges of Course in 2019 I don't think anyone is Really expecting a rally to 14K Um followed by another nine month bear Market or so after that before getting Into a true parabolic rally into the Next cycle but I I would argue that what You're most likely going to see this Year is is again A recovery year where you spend about Half the time Moving higher half the time moving lower You can break that up in in different Months so like you know 2018 2014 2022 We had like eight or nine red months but In the recovery years it split more or Less half and half and I think you're Likely going to see the Envy every Z Score do something like that where it
You know it comes back above the zero Line like it is right now eventually Probably dips back below it again and we Just spend some time consolidating and Then once we get into 2024 and and the Next having ideally Um you know a rally a more of a Sustained rally where we can see the Nvrbz score go to sort of much higher Level so that's how I'm playing this Year is just more or less as a a Recovery year and that's what more you Know that's what I would argue that the Mvrbz score is is sort of uh saying it's Likely going to be as well especially When you look at it in the context sort Of coming out of these bear markets Right so like coming out of this bear Market you then just sort of recover for A while before going up Coming out of the spare Market you sort Of just recover for a while before Really going up and then again right you Come down and you recover for a while uh Before before generally training higher If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and again check out Into the cryptoverse premium at into the Cryptiverse.com see you guys next time Bye
