Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we’re going To talk about Bitcoin but more Specifically we’re going to be talking About the Bitcoin dominance if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and check out into the cryptiverse Premium at into the cryptiverse.com now Of course we have to provide an update On the Bitcoin dominance as it is going In the general direction that we’ve been Suspecting that it would now in this Video we’re going to cover both the Dominance including and excluding stable Coins I’m not trying to suggest that one Is necessarily more important than the Other although I do think that they can Provide different insights by looking at Them separately than excluding either One of them okay so the first thing We’re going to look at is the dominance Including stable coins and what will What we’ve talked about for quite a long Period of time is how the dominance Should ultimately head much higher once Bitcoin decides to wake up and remind Everyone that it is King and I think you Can see that actually playing out and in Fact Um recently we actually popped back Above the bull market sport band we then Back tested the 20-week SMA we held it As support which as we’ve said right is
A very crucial step for the dominance And then we are now moving somewhat Higher moving higher somewhat quickly Right Now sort of talk back about you know Where we’ve been with the Bitcoin Dominance and and and some of the things I’ve you know I I got right about it but Also to be completely Fair where I I Misstepped a little bit Back over here back in April Mar March and April and actually Really early 2022 we were calling right For the dominance to head much higher And it’s interesting because it did Right it actually went quite a bit Higher and I personally thought that we Were already going to be breaking out Here so I sort of thought that this area Right here was sort of akin to this one Over here right where it was finally Breaking out but with the merge right Ethereum the merge that we had last year And the the general hype that that Brought I mean it kind of kicked the can Down the road on it now I do hope that We are now finally in that stage that We’ve been discussing for a long time And one sort of realizing that this was Headed down we said look it’ll probably Reverse sometime in September and the Reason we mentioned that is because if You actually look at the dominance what You’ll notice is that every time it’s
Going in One Direction leading into September it tends to reverse okay so if You were to draw a line you know looking At say the very first week of September Every single year What you’ll notice is that whatever Direction the dominance is heading going Into September it tends to reverse out Of it and go the other direction that Doesn’t mean that it always goes up After it the thing is is whatever again Whatever Direction it was going heading Into it it tends to reverse so like look Back at at 2021 you’ll see a very Similar thing it was heading down going Into September and then it reverse Course in Fairly short order and if you Continue to go back I’m probably not Gonna not gonna show all of them you can Do that in your own time but over here’s Another example right where it was the Dominus is going down into into September and then it reverse course Maybe I’ll find one where it where it Actually did the opposite right so I can Just show you that it’s not always Here’s a good example right so here’s September 2019 the Dominus is going up And then September ultimately led to it To it reversing course and going in the Other direction and then once again September 2018 a very similar thing Right it was going up into it and their Reversed course so the point is is
September has historically marked a very Crucial Turning Point turning point for The Dom dominance of Bitcoin and I know A lot of people might not appreciate the Videos on bitcoin Domino’s because it Might not be the most Um compelling thing as it’s not Necessarily something that you can Directly trade right like you’re not Specifically trading Bitcoin dominance Right like you so you know to to get a Position doesn’t mean you’re getting you Know getting a position on the Bitcoin Dominance but the reason why I think It’s important is because it can help Identify various risks that you want to Take on given the reward and it can tell You whether the altcoin market is Undervalued or overvalued with respect To Bitcoin now I know a lot of Bitcoin Maxes would say the altcoin market is Always overvalued but people that are Not Bitcoin Maxes would probably argue That there’s no reason that the Bitcoin Dominance should be over 40 in the first Place and I’m kind of somewhere in Between like I I think that over the Long Haul it’s it’s quite clear that the Dominance is heading down like from a Macro perspective it is heading down but In the short to medium term I I think It’s actually going to head much higher Okay so that’s Horizon while I do think It’s going to head higher I think as you
Get out in the 20 you know later 2024 2025 it’ll probably come back down again And we’ll have you know another very Significant All Season like we’ve had You know like we’ve had in the past Right where the Dominus just sort of Falls off the cliff after Bitcoin you Know has a parabolic run right so that’s Something that I I think is worthwhile To consider now the other way that we Can look at this and I I want to look at This a lot of different ways Is to look at the hikanashi candles on The Bitcoin dominance but also to Actually look at it on a monthly time Frame because it actually has switched Green here and and we’re starting to get Into a new bull Trend here on the Bitcoin dominance I think the way to Look at this is just sort of building Out a massive base down here ultimately To prepare to go much higher now one of The things that we’ve mentioned before And it is playing out right is that a Lot of times the dominance starts to Move up on a Bitcoin pump okay this is What we’ve said many times right Normally when it gets moving it’s Because Bitcoin goes up first if you Take a look at prior moves that’s Exactly what happened right so if we Were to go overlay the the Bitcoin price And let me switch this to a logarithmic Scale and we’re going to look at you
Know the last two major times where we Saw the Bitcoin dominance surge really Three times three times right Over here in 2020 what do you notice the Dominance was going up well Bitcoin was Going up right and then look at 2019 the Dominance is going up all Bitcoin was Going up and then the other example is 2018 and what you’ll see is this move Here in July of 2018. the s p actually Rallied about 45 or sorry Bitcoin Rallied about 45 to 46 percent it then Came back down and what’s interesting is During this rally right during this Rally that started right here The dominance went up but the more Important part is that after it came Back down the dominance continued to go Up That’s the important part in 2019 here Bitcoin peaked in June Right you can see that it sort of peaked Here in June the dominance continued Going higher until September right so The point that I’m trying to make and I’ve made this point many many times is That at least the idea okay Is that it doesn’t matter the direction That Bitcoin goes the dominance should Go higher either way for now okay that Thesis will eventually change uh Especially as we get you know as we get Further and further Um early you know closer to the having
And sometime after the having you know You’re going to expect the trend to Change eventually right it’s not going To go go on forever as you can see Historically it doesn’t go on forever Right the dominant sort of Ebbs and Flows and I think we’re in a phase where It’s it’s going to go up quite a bit Higher for a while and the key thing to Look for right and I I cannot stress how Important this is for for me as an Investor and I think it’s quite Important for other people too but one Of the things I’m looking for is Whenever Bitcoin corrects right and I Mean even if you’re even if you’re a Permeable and you you know you’re always Boasting Bitcoin I think at some point You can appreciate the fact that it Would have a pullback right it would Have a correction at some point the key Thing to look for for the progression of The cycle is once it goes up and it Pulls back when it pulls back the Dominance should still go up okay that’s An important thing to look for is to Still see it go up after Bitcoin USD Goes back down some We’ve already seen that occur a few Times already so if you look back at the Last week or two there have been a few Days where Bitcoin USD was going down And during that time if you watch Closely you’ll notice that the dominance
Of Bitcoin continued to go higher even During that time one of the things that The dominance serves as a use force or At least Bitcoin USD and then looking at How it how it behaves respect to all Coins When Bitcoin rallies it can often get Like altcoin Bitcoin pairs off of key Support levels or keep pivot levels and That by the time the Bitcoin corrects These all coins no longer have a place To hide because they’ve now lost the Support that they had when Bitcoin Pumped and I want to show a few examples Of that okay so Um if we go down and look at a lot of The different altcoins and we’re going To specifically look at their Bitcoin Pairs right so first of all let’s say Look at at Ada Bitcoin what do you Notice about ADA Bitcoin let me get this Off the high kanashi candle so let’s Just look at the normal candles here It came up very quickly And then got very quite heavily rejected Off the bull market sportbender bear Mark resistance band and then came back Down so Bitcoin sucked in this liquidity From the altcoin right from Ada I I Think you know it sucked in that Liquidity and then Bitcoin used that to Continue higher so I know there’s all Sorts of theories as to why bitcoin’s Going up one of the main reasons I think
It’s not the only reason but one of the Main reasons is that I think people are Are as a whole are at least some at Least on a lot of all coin pairs they’re Going back to bitcoin because it’s Relatively safer play and because of General uncertainties with regards to The altcoin market Um at least until we get some more clear Regulations right so what you notice is That ADA it first pumped up right so a Lot of people might think oh this is Going to be another another major All Season where all the all coins are going To opt from Bitcoin and look what Happened right it got very quickly Rejected Bitcoin sucked in that Liquidity and now Ada is going down on Its Bitcoin pair despite the fact that Bitcoin USD and Ada USD are both going Up right so this support level that ADA Bitcoin is trying to hold at you know 1500 satoshi’s or so Bitcoin if if it continues what it’s Doing it can get Ada Bitcoin below this Level just by doing what it’s doing Right pumping bleeding pumping bleeding So that by the time Bitcoin USD actually Has a serious correction Ada no longer has that support level so There’s just there’s nowhere to hide Right there’s just simply nowhere to Hide and then there’s still a lot of Room down here if you look at at where
It was over here you know Bitcoin USD Bottomed all the way over here in 2018 When when Ada USD or Ada Bitcoin hit This level so you can see that the the Way that this Market I think right It works when Bitcoin pumps it gets These altcoins off of some key support Levels so that by the time Bitcoin Corrects they have nowhere to hide right So take a look at another example so Take a look at at a strong altcoin a Strong altcoin over the last year Um is is BNB right I mean there’s no kid I mean I don’t have a position in it but B and B has been has been fairly strong But what do you notice what is this pump Done to the BNB Bitcoin valuation it’s Now below the bull market support band Okay and furthermore these support Levels that it’s been trying to hold Right like whether it’s here at 14 000 Satoshi’s or if you want to put it all The way down here at 13 000 you can see That it’s starting to get quite a bit Lower and if Bitcoin continues what it’s Doing For another week or two it’s going to Get this one off of some major support Levels as well so that by the time Bitcoin USD corrects again there’s Really nowhere to hide okay so we’ll Look at a couple more examples but then We’ll continue on Another one that I want to talk about is
Solana so Solana is a coin that has has Gotten hit pretty hard as an altcoin Throughout this bear market and and it’s Had a pretty sizable rally off of off of This Wick low down here and if you guys Remember one of the things I said many Many times is that just because an Altcoin corrects 80 percent doesn’t mean It can’t correct another 80 percent and And this is a great example of that Right go take a look at at Solana USD And you know for everyone that that says It was never you know it could never Happen right there’s no way you know There’s no way an altcoin can drop 80 Twice look at what ultimately happened At least so far it dropped 80 percent And from that level it dropped another 84 right so it really does go to show That the altcoin market can get pretty Wrapped in in a bear market right I mean Just look at that now go look at Solana Bitcoin what do you see right I mean of Course everyone’s super excited about it Because Salon is gone up a lot recently What do I see Same downtrend as always right it’s the Salon of Bitcoin it’s the same downtrend As always and you see rejection right After rejection and my guess is Rejection I mean could it get back above Here the 20-week SMA at like 12 000 so Maybe uh if it does the next stop I Think will be 13 000. it’s good I think
It’s going to be somewhat hard for it to Get much above 13 000 satoshi’s I’m not Saying it can’t happen but it’s going to Be a pretty big resistance level and This you know it’s been in this channel For for quite a long period of time and You might think right there’s two of Course there’s two places you could be Right I mean you could think the bottoms In or you could think the Bottom’s not In for Bitcoin right but here’s the Point right this is the main point that I I think people should sort of Recognize and this is not going to go For every single altcoin so we need to Remember there’s always a few all coins That outperform Um But even if you think you know even if You’re sure of of the bottom being in a Lot of these coins still bleed against Bitcoin even throughout the you know Throughout the following year right so Look at Ada Bitcoin right Bitcoin USD Bottomed here but Ada Bitcoin continued To go down until you know August of 2019. so When you go look at you know if you go Back and look at at Solana Bitcoin which Is now at 11 000 satoshi’s The thing is is it doesn’t mean it can’t Just simply roll over up here and put in A new low we talked about this a lot Throughout the summer and and what’s
Interesting is is back over here one of The things we we talked about whenever We talked about you know these all Bitcoin Pairs and looked at salon and Bitcoin is that it’s likely going to Roll over over here when it used to be This was back when it was like you know 18 000 satoshi’s and 19 000 satoshi’s Right and everyone was super excited About it and then you know on this pump Here everyone got super excited they Were calling for new highs and then what Happened right it just completely rolled Over went to the bottom of the channel Now it’s pumping back up and everyone’s Getting excited about it again but Instead of being at like you know 18 or 19 000 satoshi’s where it was in the Summer It’s now at 11 000. satoshi’s right so Everyone gets super excited about it but It’s likely just going to be another Lower high on its Bitcoin pair and so This is how the altcoin market can can Suck liquidity uh or at least Bitcoin Can suck liquidity out of the altcoin Market is because you get a lot of People that sort of YOLO back in to These all coins at these new local highs Only for them to eventually roll back Over look at how many times it’s rolled Over and then just gone back down like It put a new high so this is you know a High a lower high right a lower high
Probably going to just be simply another Lower high and this is something that I’ve learned the hard way many many Times and if your argument against it is That well you know if you think Bitcoin USD is bottomed it doesn’t really matter I mean even if it has the altcoin market It’s still likely going to lead against Bitcoin so that’s why I’m you know That’s why I think the dominance of Bitcoin is such an important metric Because it really shows you the health Of the overall market and when you look At it like this what it tells me is that Bitcoin coin is undervalued compared to The altcoin market and so That’s why I’ve said before right like I You know I I think Bitcoin is just Simply a much safer play than the Altcoin market until Bitcoin is much Higher now of course you can cherry pick Every single local low on the altcoin Market and say well it’s up this amount Of you know it’s about it’s up a certain Percentage but for the longer term Investors who aren’t really interested In timing all these you know all these Um you know intermediate rallies it Really does go to show that that the Dominance is a really great indicator of Of all of these altcoins in macro Downtrends against Bitcoin right and and A lot of them are right I mean dot Bitcoin is another example right just a
Systematic slow down Trend and every Time we pump you know everyone gets Excited about it it doesn’t change the Fact that it’s just simply been in a Macro downtrend against Bitcoin really Since May of 2021 right it’s not going To stand a downtrend forever probably Well maybe who knows right but This is how this is how people lose a Lot of their money on on all coins and You know if you’re if you’re someone That only looks at the USD evaluations Then maybe you don’t care about this Stuff but if you were to look at the Bitcoin valuation of your altcoin Portfolio and you look at as a function Of time over the last year and a half You’ll likely see it going down now Here’s the trick though you might think Well that doesn’t make any sense because The dominance only just started to go up Right you might say well how can this Make sense the dominant only just sort Of go up in September so you know how Are we how are we to say that the Altcoin market only just started to Bleed remember this includes stable Coins okay it includes stable coins so When you go look at all these pairs Right if you if you just simply look at A lot of them I’m not going to cherry Pick right if you just simply look at a Lot of the altcoin Bitcoin pairs they’ve Been bleeding I mean this Aid has been
Bleeding against Bitcoin since August Dot’s been bleeding in August 2021. That’s been bleeding since May of 2021. Link has been bleeding since August of 2020. Uniswap Bitcoin has been in a macro Downtrend since May of 2021 I mean it Has bounced up somewhat recently but Even here you can see it’s starting to Lose support here at its own bull market Sport band BNB has is one of the few That has had been doing well but it also Did well you know in in Prior bear Market slash accumulation phases it Doesn’t mean it didn’t eventually roll Over when Bitcoin finally took control Against a lot of Bitcoin macro downtrend Since September 2021. so the reason that The dominance of Bitcoin It you know even though it looks like It’s only started going up since September is because it’s inclusive of The stable coin market and if you look At this without the stable coin market So if we Um decide not to include stable coins so This is not including Um stable coins you can see that it’s Actually just been in an uptrend Since May of 2021 right and we’ve said This many many times don’t let the Bitcoin dominance metric fool you into Thinking that all coins only just Started bleeding against Bitcoin that’s
Not actually true you look at it if you Look at it without the stable coin Market and we sort of zoom in over here The low on the dominance excluding Stable coins was Um you know back over here In um in in May was like 42 you know 41 41 and a half percent and then over here In January of 2022 was 42 and a half and Then in September 2022 44 and a half And then 44 and I mean if we get the Actual technical low it was 44.149 44.49 and this one was 44.59 technically It’s a high or low and you can continue On right you can continue on this was 44.59 and then 45.05 and then 46.5 so again Bitcoin is Slowly very very slowly taking back Control of the crypto Market even though It’s it’s a painstakingly with slow Process and if you look at the dominance Excluding stable coins it’s gone from Like 40 percent to 48 since May of 2021. So it’s been moving higher for a year And a half now and the altcoin market Continues to bleed and you know I I’ve Been in in a lot of your shoes before or If you you know if you hold a lot of all Coins and you don’t like this analysis I’ve been there I’ve done that a lot of Times and I’ve been wrecked on the Altcoin market so many times on their Bitcoin price I just sit there and look At my all coins and in Prior cycles and
Be like oh like it’s worth less than Bitcoin and less than Bitcoin and it Just continues to be worth less and less And less And then what happens is that eventually You know like I would capitulate my Altcoin position because I’m like well Bitcoin just everything’s bleeding as Bitcoin and then by the time I would Capitulate my outgoing position then the All coins would finally run against Bitcoin right after Bitcoin would have a Parabolic rally so you know you watch Bitcoin have a parabolic rally and then Everyone yield those back into Bitcoin And then by that point it’s almost time To just go back the other way so the Other way to think about this too is is To actually look at the dominance with And without stable coins on the same Chart I think it’s actually somewhat Interesting you can see that they they Really were the same thing for a long Time they really started to diverge over Here what you’ll notice Recently is that One of the reasons not the only reason But one of the reasons that the Dominance is going up is the stable coin Market is going into Bitcoin okay so yes All coins have been bleeding against Bitcoin we know that they’ve been Bleeding for a year and a half but The stable coin Market is actually going
Into Bitcoin right now because look at How quickly this is coming up So the orange one down here is without Stable coins or sorry sorry it’s with Stable coins so the orange one is with Stable coins look how quickly that one’s Going up normally the stablecoin market Takes away from Bitcoin but now it’s Actually adding to the dominance of Bitcoin quite quickly If we add a formula here so we’re going To take M2 minus M1 so that is is Bitcoin dominance without stable coins Minus the Bitcoin dominance with Stablecoin so we’ll evaluate that We’ll switch this over To a um A linear scale And you can see how it’s been coming Down recently and so what that means is That these these two metrics are Converging a bit right so you know They’re well while both of them are Moving up the one with stable coins is Actually moving up a bit quicker and so They’re actually starting to converge Even though they’ve been diverging for a Long time right as this goes up as this Blue line goes up the difference between The yellow line or the you know the Yellowish line and the orange line is Beginning higher and higher but this Most recent move to the downside shows That the stablecoin market has actually
Been going into Bitcoin more so than you Know the altcoin market and I I think Again that it shows you that the risk Reward right now is is still better with With Bitcoin it’s not going to always be Like that and um I want to reiterate That but it does still it does still Show that And then the other thing I think to look At is the um Is the season the all coin season index Indicator so if we go take a look at That Like it shows what we’ve been talking About right it’s heading towards Bitcoin Season I mean it’s it’s very close to This green level the the metric is Currently at 28.57 so that’s pretty Close to 25 when it’s in 25 that’s Bitcoin season if you take say like a 30-day moving average of it you can see It’s moving towards Bitcoin season and Um I’ll probably get there in not too Long So again The dominance of Bitcoin is now at 43.88 Um you know the last time I made the Video I think it was at 42 and a half The time before that was probably like 40 so you can see it’s you know it Really is slowly starting to go higher Here There will be I’m sure there’ll be some Corrections right I mean it’s not just
Going to go straight up uh we just had a Correction a few weeks ago but this can Move fairly quickly as you as you can See I mean look at this right like in December last month it was all the way Down at 40 percent now it’s almost 44 Right I would suspect that it’s going to Take out this High okay I think it’s Going to take out this High uh which is All the way up at at 48 or so 48 and a Half so I think that’s sort of the first Step is to ultimately take out that high It might not take it out on on one rally It might you know rally up come back Continue to Rally something like that But I do think it will eventually take Out this high and and continue to to go Higher the key thing to look for okay So if you’ve been following me for a While and and you’ve been following the Devaluation of the altcoin market as a Whole against Bitcoin okay if you’ve Been following that for a while and and You’re you know you’re itching to figure Out when does you know when do all coins Stop bleeding against Bitcoin the thing To look for is you first want to see a Much healthier Bitcoin dominance well Once that occurs once you see a much Healthier Bitcoin dominance then you’ll Likely start to see a lot of these all Coins bottom out on their Bitcoin pairs Remember a lot of all coins in the last
Cycle Did not bottom until six to ten months After Bitcoin USD bottomed so if you’re In the camp that you think Bitcoin has Bottomed on its USD pair it does not Mean the altcoin market has bought them That’s Bitcoin pair okay remember that And if you think that the Bitcoin bottom Is not in then the altcoin market still Has a long way to go to before I bought Them to get this Bitcoin so again the Point is is no matter what no matter you Know up or down the altcoin market it Should still bleed against Bitcoin Probably off and on for the next you Know what 12 months or so maybe maybe More off and on there will probably be a Phase where it will Um I mean if you look at even if you Look at over here right in 2019 You know it rallied up it came down for A bit and then rallied up again right so Sort of zigzag so you might see Something like this where it you know it Goes like this and then and then it sort Of hits the top and then it sort of Comes back down and then eventually Rolls over into another major all season So that’s sort of what I’m looking for On the Bitcoin dominance over the macro Scale I admit I could be wrong right I I Certainly am not going to get the path Exactly right it’s taken a lot longer For the dominance to go up than I
Thought it would but I ultimately do Think the destination will be the same Even if the journey to get there uh took A few detours along the way if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up we also do have into the cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptiverse.com we Do have several different tiers Including a free one make sure you check It out links in the description below See you guys next time bye
