Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing golden crosses and death Crosses if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out into the cryptiverse premium At into the cryptiverse.com I wasn't Actually planning on making a dedicated Video for this because I actually think These these indicators are sort of hyped Up beyond the the actual value that they Provide but given that there has been a Lot of discussion around them I do want To make a dedicated video going through The golden crosses and death crosses all Right so we're going to look at this on The daily time frame and the weekly time Frame and and just sort of look to see What is it telling us now a golden cross In in this instance on The Daily time Frame how we're referring to it is a Cross where the 50-day SMA crosses above The 200 day So essentially the idea is that the Average price of the last 50 days is now Above the average price from the last 200 days and when this occurs there's Obviously a bit of bullish sentiment Because in the short term the price is Higher than the average price from you Know the last 200 days so everyone's a Bit more excited than they otherwise
Would be There's a few interesting patterns Though trends that we've seen from prior Cycles with respect to these golden Crosses I thought that would be somewhat Useful to take a look at one of the Things that can often happen with golden Crosses and death crosses is that you Hear Golden Cross and usually people Just immediately think well that means The price is going to go up like a lot Or if you hear death cross you might Think oh that means price is going to go Down in reality To a large extent it's just a lagging Indicator you know to get a golden cross You typically need a fairly nice move to Get a death cross you need a pretty Negative move So it it sort of tells you what you Already know though you could argue There are some traders who who wait for These sorts of things to occur to get Confirmation of of a trend reversal But let's actually take a look last Cycle and see what happened all right Because a lot of times in the short term It can do the opposite of what you Expect and don't take my word for it Right let's just look at the chart Golden Cross the first golden cross we Had at 2019 the year after the bear Market year right so 2018 was the bear Market year 2019 our recovery year
Golden Cross right here The trend eventually continued but what Happened in the short term We had a dump and the price of Bitcoin Dropped about 14 from this high here to This low and it was also after again a Very similar move up right I mean there Was a pretty nice move up here in the Consolidation for a little bit this was A 14 move to the downside to give you an Idea of what a 14 move to the downside Would look like today It would get the price of Bitcoin back Down to around nineteen twenty thousand Dollars okay Just to give you an idea a very a very Similar type move would look something Like that but then we ended up having a Death cross not that long later I mean The Golden Cross was in April the death Cross here was in October and wouldn't You know we actually pumped going into That death Cross by about 42 percent so Again you know the golden crosses and Death crosses are graded at grabbing Headlines and that sort of stuff but Oftentimes when you see Golden Cross the Price goes down in the short term and When you see death cross the price goes Up in the short term what do you notice About both of these cases though Golden Cross here while the price initially Dropped the trend actually continued Higher and while the death cross showed
The price initially go up the price Still continued lower so again it was Sort of just a confirmation of that Trend change and then when you actually Get the headline of golden cross and Death cross it does the opposite of what You expect in the short term so Golden Cross price dumped Death cross price pumped here was Another Golden Cross and what happened Right the price dumped about 10 percent Right here we had a death cross and what Do you think happened right or sorry a Golden crop this was the death cross Right here and in the death cross you Can see that I mean the the the price of Bitcoin was actually rallying up into it I mean I don't know exactly when it Occurred it actually looks like in this Case you actually had a dump on the Death cross so that's sort of an outlier Here we had a golden cross and the price Dropped about 12 percent or so this is a Very common thing we see with Bitcoin Where you get these golden crosses and Instead of instead of doing what you Might assume you actually see a Short-term move in the opposite Direction but in general what's Interesting is when you got this Golden Cross while you had a short-term dump The trend still was up for a while with This death cross you had a short-term Pump the trend was down for a while
This was sort of like a an outlier I Mean we know what happened back over Here in early 2020 Um I mean this was affecting all Financial markets so I don't know if we Should put a lot of weight into this But again you can see a golden cross the Price price dropped here the Golden Cross Dropped Here's another interesting Trend and and You know this sort of goes back all the Way from from several Cycles ago And one of the interesting things is if You look at the first Sort of recovery year after after about A year or you know six six months or so Of a bear Market maybe not even quite That but around there you can see that It only took one Golden Cross to sort of Get into a bull market that took us to New highs one Golden Cross During the second cycle After the bear Market year once we got Into sort of our recovery year you can See it took two Golden crosses to get into that next Bull market that took us to all-time Highs and then this cycle over here the Third one The third recovery year it took three Golden crosses before we actually got Into a bull market that took us to new All-time highs so I'm not trying to say
That we should extrapolate this and Assume that it's going to take four Golden crosses because that's probably Not what's going to happen my point is Is there there's a trend here that just Because you get a golden cross it does Not usually mean that that's the rally That's going to take you to a new All-time high you know you just need Patience generally in a recovery year You're likely going to see volatility in Both directions you could have a series Of golden crosses and death crosses for The next 12 to 18 months potentially Um so I I do think it's worthwhile to Keep that in mind if you go back and Look at 2015 we can also get an idea of What happened on these golden crosses And death crosses we had a golden cross Right here and in this case you can sort Of see let's let's try to get it up Exactly So the price was pumping into that Golden Cross Um here was a golden cross where you can See the price price actually dumped down From Um so this is one of those things where You know yet again the Golden Cross sort Of already tells you something that you Know right I mean yes the price action Of Bitcoin has been great and because of That you're seeing a short-term moving Average go above a long-term moving
Average so this is you know an important Thing to consider another thing is this Golden Cross is the first golden cross We've had since September of 2021 so Think about that it's February it's you Know I mean we're almost 18 months it Was almost 18 months ago 17 months ago Where we actually had our last Golden Cross 17 months since the last Golden Cross That's a long time so you know this is At least an achievement by Bitcoin right So we can you know Bitcoin deserves a Power in its back this is at least an Achievement that it hasn't seen in in Quite a long period of time Now we also should check the weekly time Frame because this is something that We've never actually had to contend with Or deal with in the past is a weekly Death cross which coincidentally is Going to occur next week basically the Same time when we just got the golden Cross in the daily time frame and now We're going to get the death cross in The weekly time frame basically at the Next weekly close you can see right now The 50 week is at twenty five thousand And thirty two dollars the 200 week is At twenty four thousand nine hundred and Twenty two dollars so they will be Crossing and they're going to be Crossing right around 25k is sort of the Line of the sand where they're actually
Going to cross so it's kind of an Interesting number that they're crossing Right essentially at that prior local High from August Um And it's also a 60 move up or so from The bottom so one thing that I've you Know you you might ask with the with the Death cross is what does it mean well We've never had one before for Bitcoin So I don't know what it means I don't Know exactly what's going to occur Unfortunately no not that I would ever Know exactly what's going to occur we Almost had a death cross over here but It was narrowly avoided if you go take a Look at the S P 500 there are certainly Times where we have death crosses where It led to further downside there's also Times we had death crosses that didn't Lead anything if you could take a look At the um the s p I mean here's a financial crisis From this death cross here I mean you know from that level the Price continued to drop quite a bit Until the ultimate low That's I mean that's an outlier to some Degree from this death cross we actually Dumped into it and from that level the Price ended up dropping another 19 20 Percent But if you go back to you know to like The 1980s 1970s there are examples where
The death cross still meant that you Still had a little further ways to go Down in terms of Percentage decrease but usually by the Time they occurred You know you were still by that point You were well within the bear market and And we were getting closer to the end of It by the time the death cross actually Occurred okay and there's also I think Cases where you had a death cross and it Didn't mean a thing right I mean here's A death cross that occurred in in 1958 and what happened By the time the death cross occurred The the s p was already above it and Then we had a golden cross and the s p Was still continuing to Rally so there's No clear defined Thing that of course has to occur here's Another example of a death cross right So we had a death cross right here A very brief one and and then we had a Golden cross not too long later and we Never really went back to these lows Right we never really went back to those Lows I'm not sure if we Revisited them Later on Um it looks like maybe we did so if we Were to Draw a line from this level here where The death cross the actual evaluation at The death Cross or sorry where the death Cross was not the not the price actually
Actually that's interesting so where This death cross occurred we ended up Revisiting that level so this was in 1963. we Revisited that level in 1974. 11 years later right I wonder if there was an investor that Just sort of sat on the sidelines right Here and and did not buy and then waited And waited and waited and then finally They're like all right time to buy you Know Um But what it shows is is that of course There's no guarantees as to what's going To happen and and one of the things I've Said many many times and I will continue To reiterate is that a DCA strategy is Likely going to be the best strategy in In most cases just simply because you Don't know what the outcomes are going To be and you know whether we go lower Or not we talked about the worst case Scenario but there's no guarantees about Anything you know I mean there's always A chance we go lower there's a chance That we don't and that's why I think It's worthwhile to be hedged both ways Normally in crypto and DCA strategy as Typically works is what works out the Best right you DCA according to Something I use the risk levels that I've talked about before but you can use Whatever you want Um and and and then hopefully that that
Works out for you in the long term but This is going to be a the first weekly Death cross Um I don't you know I don't mean to Hype It up or anything like that it's just It's never happened before so it'll be The first one that that has ever Occurred for Bitcoin and we'll see what Happens note that it's occurring and We're below the the actual level where They're Crossing I don't know if that Makes a difference in terms of in terms Of the outcomes or what the likely Outcomes would be But they are crossing at around twenty Five thousand dollars and they should be A crossing on the next weekly close Hopefully this video has been useful for You in terms of navigating these golden Crosses and death crosses my general Interpretation of them is that they're Lagging indicators and they're not Generally going to be worth our time Oftentimes but not every time they Actually mean the opposite in the short Term but then the trend can continue Right so like a lot of times a golden Cross will actually mean a short-term Dump followed by a con a sustained Longer term move to the upside whereas The death cross can mean a short-term Pump followed by a longer term move to The downside now we're getting a daily Cross a daily Golden Cross and a weekly
Death cross so Um you know the Bulls of course are Going to point to the golden cross the Bears are going to point towards the Death cross I think you need to be Hedged either way of course it's not Financial advice thank you guys for Tuning in make sure you subscribe give The video a thumbs up and we also have Into the cryptiverse premium at into the Cryptiverse.com I'll see you guys next Time bye
