Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin season if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and also check out into the Cryptographers premium at into the Cryptiverse.com let's go ahead and jump In we've followed this indicator quite Frequently on this channel especially Over the last few weeks and the reason Is because we generally suspected that We were in fact heading into Bitcoin Season and before we get too far into This video I want to explain what Bitcoin season means okay because there Could be a misinterpretation as to what It actually means Bitcoin season says Nothing about the price of Bitcoin okay So let's do away with that thinking has Nothing to do with the price of Bitcoin You might look at it and say well if We're in Bitcoin season does that mean That that the price of Bitcoin is going To Skyrocket doesn't mean it's going to Go down what does it mean does it mean The all coin Market's gonna Skyrocket or Does it mean the all coin Market's gonna Go down It doesn't mean either of those things Okay so we need to be clear about what Does Bitcoin season actually mean so When we talk about it you understand Like what I'm ex what I'm trying to
Communicate okay so at least that's what I think it means and what it means to me Bitcoin season To just put it as clearly as I can means That whatever the direction of the Market Bitcoin should outperform okay that is The meaning of Bitcoin season it just it Says nothing about the price whether it Goes up or down all it says is no matter The direction of the market Bitcoin Should show relative Better performance than the rest of the Market So the way that this is defined you know We're looking at essentially the top 50 Cryptocurrencies obviously including Bitcoin and looking to see you know how Many of those top cryptocurrencies are Outperforming Bitcoin or underperforming Bitcoin over various time frames so the Time frame that we're looking at right Now is looking over the last 90 days When we go below a value of 25 it means We're in fact in Bitcoin season so right Now it's at 22.45 when we go above 75 it Means we're in alt season okay this is The All Season that everyone loves you Know Everyone likes it when when you Know all coins are flying especially Relative to bitcoin but that's hopefully A a good way to think about this is to Say it only matters the relative Performance and so recently what has
That meant it has meant that as Bitcoin Goes up the rest of the market is not Keeping pace All you know overall of course you can Always look to some cryptocurrencies and And cherry pick you know your favorite Altcoin that might be outperforming Bitcoin over over a certain time period But The market as a whole is underperforming Bitcoin that is you know it's fairly Well captured in the fact that the Bitcoin dominance continues to move Higher you know it was only just a few Weeks ago early in January the dominance Was below 41 and and I know a lot of People I saw the comments right A lot of People were calling for new lows on the Dominance but you can see just how Resilient the dominance has been and It's now sitting over 44 and a half Percent so when you go look at Bitcoin Season again it says nothing about the Price nothing at all it just it just Says what is going to be the relative You know relatively the better performer No matter what direction the market goes There have been a few days recently here And there where Bitcoin has actually Experienced a pullback right where you Know if you were watching closely you Would have seen all right well there was A pullback over here and and there was One yesterday on the 24th and what did
You notice this during those pullbacks The dominance continue to go up right And we talked about that we've talked About how this is a necessary component Of the cycle where when you see Bitcoin Have those sharp pullbacks you really Want to see the dominance continue to go Up it's a sign that the market is is Trending in the right direction and it's A sign that people are are heading Towards you know towards the Blue Chips Rather than rather than the altcoins Which is part of the cycle I mean Eventually it'll go back the other way It always does or at least historically It does so I mean eventually it'll Probably will go back the other way That's what I think but right now that's Where we find ourselves and so the thing To remember in Bitcoin season and I've Said this a few times is that it doesn't Matter if Bitcoin goes up or Bitcoin Goes down you should see the dominance Go up either way right you should see The dominance go up either way and the Reason why that's important is because It it helps you understand you know your Risk-adjusted returns when you're trying To figure out where do you want to Deploy Capital like if you are deploying Capital into crypto and and the Blue Chip the Blue Chip which is Bitcoin If that if that one is is outperforming Most of the altcoin market and the
Altcoin market is a higher risk play Then it you know I I would interpret That as being said it was just saying That okay well it makes more sense just Put it in Bitcoin until you know until You see that that Bitcoin season Um slowly start to you know to to turn Into something else if you look closely At this you know you can currently see We're at 22.45 there's other time frames That you can look at this though on so If you look at this one so this is a 90-day time frame so looking at the out Performance over the last 90 days if you Look at the last 30 days you can see it Actually popped back up recently but There's a lot more noise on the 30-day Time frame because you know it can Change very very quickly you just have a Few all coins that that might pop up for A few weeks and then they just give Those gains back But in general Except you know with the exception of What happened in in July and August the Peaks on this altcoin season index Indicator On the 30 day they've been getting Slightly lower and lower so what that Tells me is that the op Market the all The altcoin market has been getting Weaker and weaker with respect to Bitcoin over the last you know year and A half two years or so that's also
Reflected actually in in the Bitcoin Dominance when you exclude stable coins Right and we've talked about this a few Times if you if you were to go look at At the dominance of Bitcoin Exclude so this is what it looks like When you include stable coins if you Exclude stable coins you can see the Dominance has been going up you know Since May of 2021 right so you know Going back to the All Season index Indicator Um Let's also kind of reflected when we Know when looking at the 30-day Of this all coin season index indicator These the altcoin market has been Putting in somewhat lower highs Essentially for the last two years Despite you know in the bottoms have More or less been around the same level If you look at the 60 day it's already Starting to roll back over and of course The 90 day is is well back into Bitcoin Season now here's where it gets Interesting you can also take a moving Average of it right so this is the 30-day SMA of of the altcoin Season Index indicator and it is Started I mean like so so it was moving Down quite quickly it's not moving down As quickly as it was right now I mean There can be fake outs you can see we Had fake outs over here back in April
And May where you know some people might Have thought it was about to go back Into all coin season back in May and Then what happened right the floor fell Out on the altcoin market the dominance Of Bitcoin when you include stable coins Shot above 48 Um as we got into a a local low for Bitcoin so remember Bitcoin put in that Local low back in June so this is an Interesting thing to look for now one of The things to remember is that When you get down into the depths of one Region that doesn't mean that you chase Right so like let's think about this for A minute when the altcoin sees an index The 30-day estimate of it was at 90 in May does that mean you go chase all Coins Well I mean it doesn't mean you might You might get lucky and and make some Money but when it gets this High it Typically means you want to start Looking forward to it going back in the Other direction and planning for that Right when it's down here like in December of 2020 does it mean that you Want to trade all your altcoins for Bitcoin because with the altcoin season Index is at six No in fact what it means Is you want to start planning for the Return of the altcoin market right and We experienced that we talked about the Last video that I put out in December of
2020 I think was called you know Ethereum remember remember the end of December it was when ethereum was at 700 And you know we were calling for it to Essentially just Skyrocket in q1 and Q2 Of 2020. the All Season index indicator Was all the way down here we know that Ethereum typically can do very well in a Bull market in q1 and it did and so you Plan for it to go back the other Direction now right now we're really Kind of neither here nor there I mean we Are getting close on without looking at A moving average we're already in Bitcoin season but remember these things Can take months to play out right I mean They don't resolve themselves typically In a day So the point is is to say when you spend A lot of time especially say like a Lagging indicator like if you're looking At a 30-day SMA and you're spending a Lot of time in all season or or Bitcoin Season it means you want to start Planning for the interaction now Remember back in in September the All-season index the 30-day SMA of it Was at 88 right back in September if you Remember back in September and leading Into September we said that the Dominance of Bitcoin has typically has An inflection point in September we Looked at many prior years where we saw An inflection point in September and we
Got that inflection point again where it Started to finally turn back the other Way right we put in a low and and then We started to head back to the direction Now if you were looking at the All-season index indicator back then And you saw that it was 87 or 88 that Doesn't mean that you go trade your Bitcoin for all coins so that's just not What it means for me not Financial Advice but it means you start planning For it to go back in the other direction Right so it was at 88 you start planning For it to go back in the other direction And one way that you know someone might Do that would be to sort of consolidate Their altcoins back into Bitcoin if the Bitcoin sees an index and you know if it Comes all the way back down here to much Lower levels then it would become a more Obvious play right with it at 26 the 30-day SMA of it you know it's a tough Call because we have gone a bit lower Before but the main risk to the altcoin Market Is what happens if you see it come all The way down here right so what happens To the altcoin market if the Bitcoin Season index comes all the way down to Like six or seven which occurred back in October 2017 it occurred in September of 2018 and it occurred in in December of 2020 so three times where it's really Gotten down to those levels and if it
Gets down to those levels what does it Mean it means one of two things it means Either Bitcoin pumped and left the Altcoin market behind or it means that Bitcoin went sideways and the altcoin Market dumped or it means Bitcoin went Down and the altcoin market got wrecked Even more right and so again my argument During this phase of the cycle is that When we're you know when we're in Bitcoin season When you don't include a moving average We're heading towards it when you take a Lagging indicator Right but note that it can last for Months down here before before going Back the other way and we're still well Above some of these historic lows The point is that I want to stay mostly Focused on on bitcoin at this time now Could my mind change if we come all the Way back down to these lower levels Or even down to say 15 or something Maybe right at this level at 26 is it Worth it to me no probably not right Because it still shows you that there's Still plenty of room to move down if Bitcoin once said and Bitcoin is still You know the relatively safer option at This point so again the whole idea of Following you know the All Season index Indicator and whether when all season or Bitcoin season and following the Dominance of Bitcoin and and figuring
Out you know where where is the likely Direction there the point is to say it's Not to say the USD valuations of of Bitcoin right it's to just say hey What's likely going to show relative Outperformance for you know over a given Time frame right what's what's likely Going to show out performance and the Point is whether Bitcoin goes up or down It's likely going to continue showing Out performance you know for for just a Bit longer you know for at least a while Longer is my guess and recently it just Means you know it has been it's going up Right I mean recently Bitcoin has been Going up and the Art Market has just Been simply getting left behind I mean You know you can you can cherry pick a Few altcoins but the truth is that most Of them Continue to bleed on their Bitcoin pair As I simply cannot keep up with Bitcoin And then whenever Bitcoin corrects those Alts have been taken off their supports On their Bitcoin Pairs and so they'd Keep dumping just a little bit harder Every single time and they just get Stuck in this area where they they they Can't keep up with with Bitcoin when it Pumps and then they they get wrecked More than Bitcoin when it dumps and and We've seen this play out you know for For quite a long time now I mean this Has been going on for uh several months
At this point when the Bitcoin dominance Hit that local bottom back in in September of 2022 and I think we're Going to continue to see it play out for A while longer no matter the direction Of Bitcoin USD hopefully this indicator Is useful for you to navigate the Cryptober so again it's not Financial Advice or anything like that I just want People to be aware of the various Seasons that exist there's alt season There's Bitcoin season understanding That it has nothing to do with the Altcoin USD pairs or the Bitcoin USD Pairs it's all about how are how's the Ought Market holding up with respect to Bitcoin and how was Bitcoin holding up With respect to the altcoin market if You guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up also check out into the Cryptoverse premium at into the Cryptographers.com links in the Description below several different Tiers including a free one make sure you Check it out I'll see you guys next time Bye
