Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about the total cryptocurrency Market capitalization and discuss the Worst case scenario for a potential Bottom or at least what I would consider To be the worst case scenario if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and check out into the Cryptivorous premium at into the Cryptiverse.com now I was somewhat Skeptical as to whether I should make This video or not mainly because we have Been experiencing a move to the upside Recently but I would be remiss if we did Not follow this video series that we've Been doing for about a year now just Simply because the risks still are there And it would be prudent for us as Investors to follow this through until Either it occurs or there's sufficient Evidence to suggest that it's likely not Going to occur so we are going to talk About this I understand it's not here You know it's not going to make me any Friends within the crypto verse but it Is a risk that that we at least need to Consider even if you know even if it Might not be a high probability of Occurring okay So one of the things that we've we've Talked about is comparing the Cryptocurrency Meltdown that we've seen
Since November of 2021 to what we saw Back during the.com crash this video Series that we we started back in February really began when we had the Crypto Bowl now the crypto Bowl occurred When a lot of cryptocurrency companies Overtook the Super Bowl ad space and Began advertising their company and the Reason why this was a red flag is Because the the dot combo where a lot Of.com companies overtook the Super Bowl Back in the early 2000s fairly closely Marked the major top for the NASDAQ for Quite a while and so the speculation was Well is it going to Mark a major top for Crypto in a similar manner so in this Video 11 months ago we talked about Similarities between the crypto bowl and The.com Bowl we noticed that the.com you Know the the text stocks as a whole Their market cap peaked at around 2.948 trillion funny enough the total Cryptocurrency market cap also peaked Right around that three trillion dollar Mark And so it makes us wonder you know are There other similarities that we can Continue to follow to to identify if It's going to continue to play out and Again what we would consider to be the Worst case scenario one of the things That we discussed throughout this video Series was that this bottom in June was Likely not the bottom right we talked
About that quite frequently and there Were plenty of reasons for it right Plenty of reasons for it one of the main Reasons of course was just that it seems Like you know a lot of these bear Markets people think that June is the Bottom and again I I was I thought that June was probably the bottom back in 2018 and it wasn't and then you see that Capitulation in in November and you can See once again that this played out Right it was not the bottom despite the Fact that a lot of people called for it To be the bottom and were convinced that It was the bottom and and you know found All sorts of data to suggest it was the Bottom it in fact was not and so this is The danger of of spending too much time Trying to call the bottom is is you can Be right for five or six months but it Doesn't mean it won't ever go below it Right and then it and it went below uh Sort of to the to the surprise of a lot Of people and and we found ourselves Eventually putting in new lows okay the Other thing that we mentioned throughout The summer and and one of the things we Talked about a lot in the in the worst Case scenario videos and this will make More sense as we get into it was that This was not the bottom but upon the Next lower low it at least becomes a Discussion right it becomes a discussion So one of the things that I mentioned is
That the next lower low beyond the June Low has at least a valid argument to be The bottom and my suspicion back then Was that it'll either be the next lower Low or the one after that and so the one After that is of course what I would Consider to be the worst case scenario We followed the video up that we had in February of 2022 with a video about Eight months ago titled the same thing As this video where is the Crypt to Bottom worst case scenario we talked About you know where crypto bottomed After the first cycle if you were to Extrapolate the one under week SMA down It was a basically at the 100 and the 200 week was the second cycle the 300 Week was the third cycle even though by The time we hit the 300 week estimate it Was higher than where we hit it at the 200 week in December 2018 And we speculated you know back when Bitcoin was around 30k look we're likely Going to go back to at least a 300 week SMA and and we could go below it and go To the 400 week moving average if we Continue to sort of step down one of These major weekly moving averages every Cycle so we're going to touch based on That we followed that video up with Another same titled video only five Months ago where we discussed these Ideas of these 40 rallies the 50 rallies And then the 60 rallies which will again
Make more sense in a minute and then Finally the most recent video in this Series was put out two months ago when We continued to discuss where is the Crypto bottom upon putting in a new low Okay so where are we today right where Are we today and and where does it stand Within the context of what we have Discussed as the potential worst case Scenario Well as we talked about June was in fact Not the bottom November is now up for Discussion and I think it's a more valid Debate now than it ever was back in June Okay but the purpose of this video is Not to spend too much time talking about The November bottom but it's just to Talk about the risk of what happens if We get another low after this which I Think would honestly take a lot of People by surprise if it actually Occurred again because from a cyclical Point of view Bitcoin has run its Time-based component of its bear Market Or at least what we typically see right So going back to comparisons with The.com crash there are a lot of Similarities that we need to that we Need to take close close or pay close Attention to one of which is the fact That this first rally over here was About a 40 rally and it was a bear Market rally it did not Mark the bottom After that we had a 50 rally that again
Did not Mark the bottom and then finally We had a sixty percent Rally or about a 58 59 rally that once again in the.com Crash did not Mark the bottom My speculation in the context of the Worst case scenario if it plays out is That we're in this move right now if the Worst case scenario or what I would Consider to be it is if it's going to Play out is that we could be in this Move if we if we eventually roll back Over and then put in a final low which Is what I would again what I would Consider to be the worst case Where does this compare to to the total Market cap have we seen something Similar during this bear Market is the Question a 40 move a 50 move and then a Sixty percent move right we talked about This in the prior videos on the worst Case scenario well before a lot of these Moves even occurred so The first This one was a 40 move the second one From the from this June bottom was about A 50 move where are we now It's not sixty percent up it's about 39 Percent up Meaning if it's going to follow what we Did in the.com crash there still is Potential room To the upside right If you look at Bitcoin What you'll notice is that this is that
Bitcoin is already up about 53 off of its low Now here's an interesting similarity Okay If you look at the NASDAQ during the.com Crash You'll notice that this 60 move occurred And then we finally rolled over to put In the final major bottom Look at Bitcoin for a minute Suppose this is a 60 move again it's Already 53 up where would a 60 move put Us they would put us right around 25k Now what's interesting about 25k is that It's also the the other local top that We had back in August Another interesting component of a 60 Move to potentially 25k is that it also Corresponds to the 50-week SMA and the 200-week SMA we are seeing a convergence Of both the 50-week moving average and The 200 week moving average on the Weekly time frame that Bitcoin has never Seen now there was one close call back In 2015 Where they almost crossed but it was Avoided this time they are starting to Get fairly close again and it seems like They are likely going to cross marking The first weekly death cross in Bitcoin's history again this is just uh Something that's that's playing out on The chart A sixty percent move would get Bitcoin
Though to the 50-week moving average Would it not right around 25k let's say Plus or minus a thousand dollars because You can get Wix and and if it takes Longer to get there then maybe the 50 Week will be at 24K it all depends on on How long it takes for us to get there if We if we're able to make it there A 60 move gets you to the 50-week moving Average If you go back and look at the NASDAQ Where do you think this 60 move got us In fact it was rejected off of the 50-week moving average right that's Where it got rejected and it was a 60 Move off the low in September of 2001. So you had a 60 rally And then a rejection off the 50 week a Brief pullback for about a month and Then a secondary rejection off the 50-week moving average right This is something we need to pick you Know at least pay attention to that you Know if this plays out and Bitcoin Rallies on up to 25k or even slightly Higher you know is it playing out the Same way as the NASDAQ did now what Would happen if the worst case scenario Plays out will note that from this low Here the final bottom occurred about 27 Lower Would that put the total market cap if We had to go 27 percent lower than the Prior low it would in fact put us
At around at just over 500 billion Okay at just over 500 billion Furthermore let's take a look at this Take a look at the NASDAQ Again admittedly we're cherry picking Stuff okay but again if the worst case Scenario is going to play out I mean it Has to be because some of the worst Things in the market align all together And it sends it down to those similar Valuations look at this though The move here from for from the NASDAQ Down to this local low before the 60 Rally it was a 77 percent move to the Downside okay a 77 move now take a look At Bitcoin from its top here it also was A 77 percent move to the downside Admittedly I know it's cherry picking But a very similar move not only in the NASDAQ 77 move and then a 60 rally to The 50-week SMA For Bitcoin that 60 rally also gets you To the 50-week moving average right Still so very similar setup so far that Has not necessarily been disproven so Again I'm happy to drop the worst case Scenario video series if we get more Proof That it's no longer going to play out Like this but so far that has not yet Occurred okay going further into this Comparison if you take a look at the NASDAQ you'll also notice that we were Below the 200 week SMA as well
When it occurred right we had already Fallen below it just like Bitcoin has Right Bitcoin is already well below it's Actually a lot closer but it is still Below the two in a week moving average In the same way the total crypto market Cap is also right around the 200-week Moving average right so it's slightly Above it Bitcoin is below it Total is already slightly above it but Still well below the 50 week okay still Well below the 50 week if you were to Take a look at total three which is you Know which does not include Bitcoin or Ethereum it's also well below the 50 Week and just above the 200 week Okay so just to sort of show you the Whole just to show you a whole whole Picture Some of these are above the 200 week Bitcoin is in fact not Now the next thing I want to show you if You look at the NASDAQ and we take a Look and and this is dubious at best I Mean they're the relative streams Indexes is never you know it's never the Only indicator that you want to look at Because it can easily tell you things That that make you think you know Exactly what's going to happen but in Fact something completely different Plays out look at this like you know you Can see that that these tech stocks were Basically in this Macro downtrend for a
Long time holding resistance on this Trend line when it finally broke when When the NASDAQ finally broke out to the Upside Over here It was a bull market the problem is that You could have drawn this a different Way before you got to that point and you Could have said that you know we're Putting in lower highs on the weekly RSI And that once it breaks out it means the Bottom's in but it did not mean the Bottom was in right it rallied back up To a weekly RSI of around 54. Before going back down now what's funny Is that even though the weekly RSI Bottomed in April or so of 2001 It came back down here more or less did A double bottom but the price was a lot Lower so that's why you can't put a lot Of weight into the RSI because just Because of double bottoms doesn't mean The price double bottoms but again It rallied after the breakout after the Breakout from the weekly RSI downtrend Or at least I mean it is again it's a It's a dubious way to look at it I mean You could obviously draw it a lot of Different ways you could draw it like This and say that it it came back down And and touched the weekly downtrend Line before rallying back up you could Draw like this and say that it you know Just rallied back up but note that it
Went to around that 54 level if you take A look at the total cryptocurrency Market cap And let me pull back up total so if you Look at this and we take a look at the Weekly RSI So I'm just going to clean this up a Little bit so we can see a little bit More clearly you can also following sort Of one of these macro downtrend lines it Breaks out to the upside and it's right Around that 53 to 54 level so it still Could move up a little bit and still Stay within the context of what the NASDAQ did because the NASDAQ went all The way up to right around 54 or so Total RSI on the weekly is just below 54 So like 53.65 so still some room to make It to the 50 week if it wants to but it Is not there just yet and so the Argument is that if we go back down Eventually and double bottom on the Weekly RSI while it might be a double Bottom on the weekly RSI it could be a Lower low on the total crypto market cap If it were to play out within the Context of of you know the worst case Scenario discussion okay so it's all Within the context of that with somewhat Cherry-picked data admittedly okay That I'm not trying to ignore that Aspect of it I I fully recognize that it Is it is somewhat Cherry Picked so then Continuing on the other element that I
Wanted to discuss is the time frame Because the time frame on this is Somewhat different but here's something Interesting if you take the time frame And and you would say take a ratio of it From this top to this bottom here that Marked the 60 rally it was about 79 Weeks right then this time frame from This bottom to the actual bottom was 55 So you essentially could say all right You have 79 weeks Right 79 weeks over 55 weeks Everyone always likes how to draw the Fives right 79 over 55 equals and then You go over onto total how long did it Take us to potentially get to the 60 Rally which remains to be seen Admittedly uh but if we take a time time Frame here to this bottom here it was About 54 weeks so going over to uh let Me go back over to the NASDAQ really Quick so really quick so again 54 weeks So if you were to say 79 over 55 equals 54 over X and dubious speculation at its Finest right but to get in a get a time Frame on on when the bottom would occur If it's if it's spaced out Um in an equivalent fashion just the Ratios are somewhat different so you say 79 over 55 equals 54 over X so 79 over 55 equals 54 over X This is uh Wolfram Alpha of course and Then if we saw for x and get the Approximate form here it says 37 weeks
So somewhere between 37 and 38 weeks so Then going over here where would that Put a future bottom if the bottom is not In right this is this is assuming if the Bottom is not in 30 let's say 37 38 weeks it would Actually put it out In August of 2023. August of 2023 is when that would occur If it were to play out on a similar time Scale what's interesting is you know Bitcoin and I want to look at this in The context of Bitcoin here first or at Least mainly because like Bitcoin is Sort of broken out of this downtrend Line now you could draw this in a way That has you could say it hasn't broken Out so you could easily draw it like This and say it has not broken out but If you draw it like this and and get it A bit tighter on the on the trend line Here and say that it already broke out Sometimes when these things break out You know they rally for a little bit But then they can always fall back and And you know like back test the trend Line right so I mean if I were to try to Eyeball this if it were August of 2023 Like right around here And it rallies on up and then sort of Sits up here for a while and then comes Back down and then that ends up being The bottom but also actually correspond To you know sort of hitting this trend
Line again like below the lower low and Then maybe maybe one last low again if November is not the bottom right this is Also of course assuming November is not The bottom which admittedly again it Could be so the worst case scenario is Something like that now we need to think About What would cause some actually before we Get into the before we get into the Causation of it In the in one of those videos we talked About visiting you know the 100 the 200 The 300 and the 400 . if you take a look here At those moving averages again within The first cycle within the first cycle Oh look at this we have more data now So before they didn't even have this Data but now we actually have more data On here it looks like they've added some Data down here so yeah now we don't have To extrapolate right the 100 week is What held during the first cycle this The 200 week is more or less what held During the third the second cycle the 300 week here is what held during the Third and so then the question becomes Well are we going to go to the 400 week Moving average we already went below the 300. now the 400 currently sits at Around fourteen thousand dollars so Again if if Bitcoin gets rejected off The 200 week and then comes back down
Here That you know again that could Potentially Mark A a worst case scenario Outcome okay again it's just something To consider I'm not saying it has to Play out but it's something to consider Now then What are we talking about here like why Would Bitcoin go to a new low the Contagion events have mostly seemingly Played out I mean we had you know block Five Celsius loon on the UST collapse Voyager FTX it goes on and on and on And recently even with Genesis right So all of that happened and bitcoin's Still at 23k so arguably the contagion Events have already been priced in or Played themselves out so then what risk Could there be well of course if you Watch my Channel at all you'll know the Risk is a recession right A recession is What ultimately could be what sends risk Assets into decline sometime later this Year now the problem with with this with This idea is that we just got you know US GDP estimate for Q4 and it was quite Good There's not really a lot of evidence to Suggest and we've said this for a long Time that the US is in a recession right Now right and I we've mentioned this for For many many quarters is that there's Not a lot of evidence just yet that the Re that the United States is in a
Recession it doesn't mean we're not Going to get into one but right now I Don't you know I don't really think you Can make the case that we've been in one In 2022. now you could make the case That will occur in 2023. Now what evidence is there to suggest That a recession could come well if you Were to take a look at again the Inversion of the yield curve and Treasure yield spreads it takes about 12 Months or so the the lag time on the Inversion to the uninversed is about 12 To 18 months this inverted in a Sustained way back in in July okay so That means that this coming July is is Potentially a candidate for when the Recession could start Right you know the this July Um this summer basically so Q3 of 2023 The latter half of the year So then you you sort of have to think About this idea of well if this plays Out To within that time-based component that We discussed where it could take until August right You could use that to mean that Bitcoin Is is is you know could easily chop Around at some of these higher Evaluations for months before it could Play out take a look at the NASDAQ Right When this bottom here was in in
September of 20 uh 2001 we didn't go Below it until June of 2002. I mean that was almost a year right Almost a year This bear Market actually lasted a Really long time 133 weeks The total crypto market cap has not been Anywhere close to that long right It's been 63 weeks now I do want to play Devil's Advocate a Little bit because again admittedly it's Cherry Picked data right let's play Devil's Advocate a little bit The NASDAQ 133 League bear Market total Crypto market cap 63 weeks this assumes That the bear Market's not over right if The bear Market's over then it was over After only you know 53 weeks right so 63 Weeks A lot of indicators would say though That this was the top back over here in May right So then you could argue that the bear Market is already 89 weeks in Versus 133 weeks so you're talking about You know another another 40 weeks would Still be about the same as what the.com Crash experienced so if it were to go The same length of time as 133 weeks From the first Peak Um that would put it out in November Pretty long bear marketer right that
Would be a pretty long bear market and Again it's probably not going to be a Lot of people's base case but it is Something that we we need to consider as As a potential outcome even if it does Not occur I as I said before The first low to really consider as a Potential bottom is the one that comes After the June low right after the June Low and then it's just a question of for Me is the question of is this it or is It the one after this which again I Think would be the worst case so that Would be 133 week bear Market to play Doubles Advocate though if you were to Talk about This being the peak right if this is the Peak then that means that this would Just be a bear Market rally right and so If this is a bear Market rally then Perhaps we're one rally further along Into the bear Market than you would Otherwise believe the Counterpoint to That of course is most people are going To say well price action is King who's Going to say the bear Market starts here When we technically put in a new high Just a few months later right so I mean If you're not looking at any indicators You would just look at this and say well I mean the bear Market started in November of 2021 why would people say it Occurred here when you continue to rally On up for a few months just after that
But that is one one thing that we should At least consider when continuing you Know continuing to discuss this now some Other other ways you could play dabble's Advocate Is to go look at some of the other Charts and by the way if you remember Early on in this video we talked about How Um you know how the NASDAQ dropped here From the peak 83 percent Right 83 from the peak This first drop 77 which again is the same thing that Bitcoin has done so far right a 77 drop From the peak To go 83 down where I would have put it It would put it right around 12 12 000 Or so That would be about an 83 pullback on Bitcoin would be about about twelve Thousand dollars Um it doesn't I'm not saying again I'm Not saying I have to go that low maybe We would hold it the 400 week if it Eventually rolls over but that is Something to you know again to pay Attention to is that You had that 77 drawdown a bounce back Up to the 50 week and then It ultimately Rolled over To put in that that final that final low Right and it occurred a long time later
Which is why these you know why bear Markets are are quite brutal because They they can take so long to play out Sometimes now again if you look at the s P one of the things I want to draw your Attention to that perhaps not enough People are talking about is the Potential weekly death cross This is something Bitcoins never Experienced it came close back over here But it has not really ever occurred now Unfortunately because it's never Occurred we don't know you know what to Make of it with regards to bitcoin But we have the S P 500 which has Experienced several of these weekly Death crosses and typically when it Crosses from that point you see another 20 to 30 percent move to the downside Right this was 20 this was 33 percent During period of high inflation if you Go over here to the to the.com crash we Saw another 19 move from when it crossed In the financial crisis we saw another 27 move to the downside from when it Crossed hasn't crossed yet maybe it gets Avoided but they are getting relatively Close right they are getting relatively Close right now And so if it's not avoided then Um you know then then perhaps Bitcoin Will pay out a somewhat similar fashion That's something else we have to look at Is look we've never had a weekly death
Cross with Bitcoin we are getting a Golden cross soon on The Daily time Frame by the way so that's at least for The for the for the people who are who Want to be more optimistic Um just to pull it up not to just say it But if you look at the the daily time Frame we are potentially going to see a Golden cross if this continues up in the Uh you know at the rate that at the Angle of attack that it currently is it Shouldn't take too much longer to see The 50-week or sorry the 50-day across The 200-day but even remember if you Look at prior Cycles Um you know the first cycle it took one Golden Cross to get the next bull market Started right so it took one Golden Cross before the bull market started the Next cycle it took two Right two The next cycle guess right guess right It took three one Two and three If this one's gonna be three or four Then that means we still have you know Quite a bit of chop to do uh in the Future so that would just sort of be the First attempt at getting a golden cross Here again I'm not saying that it's Going to take three or four necessarily But you can see that just because you Get a golden cross does not mean we're About to head to new highs immediately
So again something to con to think about Another way that I want to look at this Um is the Bitcoin dominance if you were To look at the dominance like this and You looked at the last cycle remember The dominance started to Surge here on a Bitcoin rally and that Bitcoin rally was Like 40 a 40 or 50 percent move Right here It was about a 40 45 move and guess what I guess you know guess what about that That move that 45 move it also rallied To the 50-week SMA and that's where it Got rejected at the 50 week is where is Where Bitcoin got rejected back in 2018. It was on the move down that the Dominance continued to go up and then We'll move sideways so if you go look at At um At the dominance here and you overlay The the the uh the Bitcoin price And we draw a line here at the peak it Occurred at around the dominance of what Like 40 somewhere between 48 to 50 or so What's interesting about that is that Means that if Bitcoin wants to rally on Up to 24K 25k or 26k it might be Accompanied by a rise in the Bitcoin Dominance just like it was over here and Then perhaps the dominance will continue To rise If it gets rejected off the 50 week and Comes back down right so that's another Another perspective to have on this is
That you know historically the market Needs to get cleansed of of some of the You know less useful projects and one Way for it to do that is for Bitcoin to Just chop them up for a while and and Then to ultimately come out stronger on The other side personally you know if I'm just being completely honest I don't Really think we're here or here you know This is the main argument is you know is Bitcoin At this point So is Bitcoin Here Or is it here Honestly it's probably neither right why Because it's a different time different Market conditions look at what happened During prior tests of the 50-week SMA We've got three examples after basically A long bear Market three examples The first one rejection then a higher Low and Blast Off the second one Rejection double bottom then go the Third one we got we we hesitated got Through It ultimately capitulated back Down below it and then put in a slightly Higher low Okay we don't have a lot of data on it But normally the 50 week offers some Resistance at least on the first attempt Even in 2019 when we got by it we still Hesitated at it for about a month before Before making our way through it where
Does the 50-week sit just above 25k Which also corresponds to this prior Local high right here Okay So again the main risk is just do we get A recession or not it doesn't seem like We're in one right now Um the the inversion of the yield curve Suggests that one will likely come at Some point the inversion on the three Month and the ten year is basically Lower than it's been in 40 years again When you come out of it it typically Means you're in a recession who knows How long that's going to take could take Six more months could take 12 more Months I don't know but that's what it Normally means and if you go look at Some of the other indicators that we've Talked about here's the smooth recession Probabilities chart which is an Interesting indicator as of as of November the probability that we're in a Recession was only about 1.16 percent Nowhere close to these other other areas Where we actually experience recessions Nowhere close to it and then if you go Look at one of the other videos we did Recently the Som rule recession Indicator It's going up a little bit but it's Still nowhere near the the horizontal Lineup here which historically is where We've we've marked the onset of a
Recession so look there's a risk that we Get a recession as we've discussed and We'll continue to discuss but there's no Evidence that it's here yet and if There's no evidence that it's here yet Then that means that we could still Spend plenty of time at elevated Valuations again the NASDAQ when it was When it had this rally It took the NASDAQ when the rallies Started it took it about 11 weeks to hit That top and then another and then 17 Weeks to double top so 11 and then 17. For Bitcoin if it's going to do the same Thing 11 weeks from this low here where Would it put it Then put it the first week oh put it Next week okay so it put it basically Next week if it's going to take the First the first time to double top The first top of the double top Could theoretically occur next week Coincidentally enough we have the fomc Next week when Um you know the fed's going to be Raising interest rates probably by Another 25 basis points so I think 50 Basis points investors are considering To be somewhat off the table at this Point and then 17 weeks would put you All the way out in March for a potential Double top if it's going to play out the Same way Right so if it were to play out the same
Way right it could be like a top pull Back for a little bit into March double Top funny enough a double top in March Would actually correspond to the fomc Meeting in March right and and one of The videos that I put out just recently And then we're gonna we're gonna have to Wrap this video up because I'm sure People are getting bored but one of the Videos that I put out recently I've been Trying to challenge myself on this is Um If we were to compare Interest rates to to bitcoin price Action This is what we're looking at Right these are interest rates and and Bitcoin price action and what you'll Notice is that when the FED pivoted over Here back in December 2018 That marked the bottom on bitcoin and Then when they went back to QE it marked The local top on bitcoin and then after Their last rate cut it marked the next Local bottom on bitcoin so you can see Sorry this here Pivot to the terminal or get reach the Terminal rate that's where Bitcoin Bottoms where they start at QE that's Where Bitcoin had its local top in 2019 And after the last rate cut in 2020 That's where the final bottom began or That's where the final bottom was before We entered into a sustained Bull Run and
This is why I've said many times it Could take the last rate cut before you See markets bottom But while that is probably going to Remain my base case if we were to think About this in another way so let's try To think outside the box for a minute One thing to consider is that maybe the Market is one step ahead okay which it Can often do maybe the Market's one step Ahead what do I mean by that The Fed was Raising here in a bull Market This time they're raising in a bear Market so there's always a chance that The market is considering the the fifth The step down to a 50 basis point rate Hike as the pivot to Mark the low on Bitcoin And then when they reach the terminal Rate so let's suppose that the FED Increases rates in February and in March Um which would be you know maybe another 25 basis Points each let's suppose that Happens perhaps you know perhaps Bitcoin That will when it you know when it tries To break through the 50 week and then Once they reach the terminal rate let's Say they reach it in in May Um That what would be interesting is if if The if the Market's just front running It right because everyone thinks a lot Of people think that when the FED pauses
The markets are going to Rally but again What if the markets are one step ahead Because normally the FED raises rates When we're in a bull market now the Raising rates were in a bear Market Um or at least we've been at a bear Market the terminal rate once it's Reached Let's say in May So let's say they reach it at like I Don't know five percent or something in May Um So let's say like right up here Perhaps that terminal rate once it's Reached Could Mark another local top on bitcoin And so it's sort of like the market Staying one step of a head one step Ahead because the FED is essentially one Step behind right the FED should have Started raising in 2021 they didn't wait Until 2022 and so it sort of seems like We're just one step uh the market is one Step ahead of the Fed so then perhaps by The time the terminal rate is in that Can Mark another local top on bitcoin And then once we go sideways one way to Potentially interpret this is um Is you know why would the feds why would The FED stop raising rates if Inflation's still high well maybe they Think the economy can't handle it or Something and that could be could be a
Bad thing we're getting a little bit off Base here but just something you know Some thinking trying to think a little Bit outside the box but Um anyways we've gone through the worst Case scenario again my opinion as I've Said you know as I said back in in the Summer is that the real discussion on Whether the bottom is in or not occurs Upon the first lower low after the June Low we've had that now the question is Does that Mark the typical cyclical Behavior for Bitcoin where we've seen a Lot of major indicators hit hit like Cyclical bottoms or does it follow The.com crash and experience one last Move to the downside after that 60 rally Into the 50-week moving average because You have to imagine a lot of people Probably thought that was the bottom as Well on a 60 rally and it still wasn't The bottom and we finally bottomed in in October of 2002 and then the next bull Market began ho hopefully you guys Enjoyed this video I I I just want to be You know completely open Um as to You know the this video series that We've been doing and this is I think Like sort of the fifth installment of This video series we'll probably only Have one or two more because you know in A few months it's either playing out or It's not you know and if Bitcoin no
Longer follows this path then we might Make one more video to say that it's no Longer a risk if it does continue to Follow the path then we might need to Make two more videos to say all right it Is a risk it still is following it and Then a follow it through to the end so That's where we stand if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up Check out into the cryptoverse premium At into the cryptoverse.com and I'll see You guys next time bye
