Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin but more Specifically we're going to talk about The Bitcoin dominance if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up And also check out into the cryptiverse Premium at into the cryptiverse.com we Do have several different tiers Available including a free one make sure You guys check that out links in the Description below Let's go ahead and jump in so as always It is everyone's favorite or maybe least Favorite video series where we spend a Lot of time just simply talking about The Bitcoin dominance and likely Outcomes and I will do my best during This video to communicate why the Dominance is a worthwhile metric to Follow at least in my opinion all right You might argue well it's not like the Dominant specifically can be traded so What's the point of talking about it so Much but I do think it provides a lot of Insight into the cryptiverse that is is Worthwhile to follow especially when you Think about alt Bitcoin pairs so The first thing I want to do is talk About the dominance when we include Stable coins all right and then we're Going to switch over to excluding stable Coins look at some more Bitcoin
Valuations and just go from there so When you include stable coins the Dominance has sort of just been in this Channel for about a year and a half now And I know a lot of people just think I'm always bullish on the Bitcoin Dominance that's not actually true I Mean you know back over here we talked About you know the ethereum tsunami Coming right remember remember the end Of December back in December of 2020 and The idea that alts should really break Out on their Bitcoin pair is we normally See that after Bitcoin goes parabolic And that's this was this time is no Different right same thing that that Tends to play out after you see a Parabolic move by Bitcoin but since then The dominance has actually just sort of Been in this channel for for quite some Time what's interesting you know we Recently spoke about Golden Cross on Bitcoin's daily time frame we spoke About a weekly death cross which Bitcoin Just had on its on its um USD pair but Interestingly enough You know the dominance itself has had a Golden cross right if you look at the 50-day and the 200-day SMA recently at Golden Cross we had a golden cross back Over here as well in March and then we Ultimately saw a rally on the dominance All the way up to around 48 49 however That rally was not meant to be the one
To sustain us to much higher levels on The dominance as we have the ethereum Merge and and so on and so forth sort of Let it back down but you can see that The dominance has slowly started to Climb higher again and and recently one Of the things you might look for in this Climb is that it's been holding support On its 50-day SMA so the 50-day SMA of The Bitcoin dominance including stable Coins was right on 43 and so it's Currently sitting around 43.81 percent Now I've been very vocal that the Dominance should continue to go much Higher and and one of the reasons why I Think a lot of people don't think this Is the case when you include stable Coins is because the stablecoin market Has become such a large part of the Cryptographers but the Counterpoint of Course is well what happens if Regulations hit the stablecoin market Like we're starting to see and therefore You could see some of the stable coin Market uh at least some of the Stablecoin market cap shrinks some if if Regulations were to sort of take hold Over the stable coin market for a while So either way I do think you're going to See the dominance of a coin head higher Even when you include stable coins not Only because you might see some people Um get spooked by this double coin Market but people who do have stable
Coins simply might want to buy Bitcoin Not because they're scared of the stable Coin Market but maybe they just think That Bitcoin is you know is is Worthwhile to buy the closer we get to The having or say you know the closer we Get to a a theoretical or a future fed Pivot which is still likely a little Ways away But regardless you can see that the Dominance has been slowly moving higher Continuing sort of holds support here on That 50-day SMA and then sort of slowly Bouncing up and ideally this is a more Sustained way to move up than this over Here right this over here is just sort Of straight up and then we came straight Back down this time what's going on Right we're hitting a low going up Putting in a higher low going back up Putting at a higher low going back up Putting in a higher low and so you could Argue this is more of a sustained way For the dominance to ultimately head Much higher now of course we can go look At this on the weekly time frame as well And when you look at it on the weekly Time frame here's the um The 50-week SMA you can see that it's Sort of just been going sideways but It's starting to curl back up maybe just A little bit I might have to squint your Eyes of course but uh starting to curl a Little a little back up to the upside if
You actually look at where the bull Mark Sport band is on the Bitcoin dominance It's currently ranging from around 41.9 Percent to around 42.41 so yeah we could Still maybe go down to that level uh if You if you see sort of another hurray by The altcoin market but I am still Sitting very much in the uh bullish on The Bitcoin dominance camp and it sort Of leads into the question well why do We talk so much about the dominance it's Not something that you can go Specifically trade right it's not like You can say oh I'll take one Bitcoin Dominance thank you very much but the Point is to understand your Risk-adjusted returns right when Navigating the cryptiverse right what is Your risk adjusted return and you can Look at the sharp ratio you can look at The sortino ratio and and Etc But you can also sort of just do an Analysis on on you know do you think the Dominance is going ahead higher of what I think what most people would agree is The safest asset in crypto and that's Bitcoin right it's not going to be Subject to the same regulation risk that You're going to see the the rest of the The rest of the cryptographers at least Get somewhat subject subjected to uh Furthermore it just it's the number one By market cap it has the longest history Here out of all the cryptocurrencies and
It's been number one and it's never Relinquished that position and so when You think about your risk adjust returns If you think that the number one crypto Is going to take market share over a Certain period of time then as for me as A fairly risk-averse investor as many of You know I look at it and say well you know why Would I want to put a lot of money into The altcoin market when I think the Dominance of Bitcoin is going to go Higher right I mean like what's the Point if I if I if I feel compelled that The dominance is going to go higher then Why would I spend too much time thinking About the altcoin market because even if The altcoin market goes up if the Dominance of Bitcoin is going higher There's a good chance Bitcoins Outperforming those all coins and if Bitcoin goes lower than what happens to The altcoin market right you get the Altcoin Reckoning and they just Completely wrecked furthermore one thing To consider is you know for the people That say well well you know if you're if You're distinctly in the camp that the Dominant or the the bottom is in for Bitcoin and there's you know you don't Really give any Credence to any other Any other type of thing remember the Dominance went up in 2019 as well right And then again over here in 2020 during
You know during that that Bitcoin Bull Run So don't make don't mistake a you know a Theoretical discussion as to whether the Bottom is it or not is a reason that the Bitcoin dominance is not going to go up I mean history shows us that in fact it Still likely will go up now I want to Sort of segue here into what I would Consider to be and I've communicated Several times to be in a more important Way to measure the dominance and of Course that's through looking through The lens of without stable coins okay so This is what it looks like without Stable coins and this is arguably much More important a much more important way To look at it you might say well you Know is it rationalizing that you know The fact that the dominance including Civil coins has not gone up as much as I Thought it would at this point maybe a Little bit right maybe a little bit But with that said the purpose of the Bitcoin dominance has always been to Help us understand the relative Performance of the altcoin market not to Say okay well how much how much is this In stable coins because if you're going To include stable coins you could also Say well why don't you include all the Cash just sitting on the sidelines Waiting to buy crypto Um so I think by excluding stable coins
It does give us a glimpse into the General Trend within the altcoin market With respect to bitcoin and you can see Ever since May of 2021 the dominance Continues to put in higher lows right And you zoom in over here right September 2022 we put out a video back In August saying we think the dominance Is going to see some type of a major Bottom in September and and you can see Really since September it's been slowly Moving higher now I would agree that It's more fun watching paintry than Watching the Bitcoin dominance go higher Just because of how slow it is but the Point is and it's a it's a it's a cold Reality to accept for a lot of people And it's something I've had had to Accept myself in Prior Cycles is that The altcoin market can just slowly and Slowly bleed back to bitcoin I mean it's Just what we see happen time and time Again you might say well why you know All these crypto projects crypto is not The same as it was back in 2017 or it's Not the same as it was back in you know 2013. So why should the altcoin market bleed Back to bitcoin well listen I mean there Are some improvements in the altcoin Market I will say that but there's also Been improvements in Bitcoin we've never Seen this type of institutional interest In Bitcoin so yes maybe there's some
Improvements in the altcoin market but That's also pretending like there's no There hasn't been any changes in in Bitcoin's Outlook as well where you know 10 years ago or maybe five years ago It's not like we had all these major Banks talking about including Bitcoin And their clients wanting Bitcoin right That wasn't really a thing now it is so Yes there's there's been some Developments in the altcoin space that's Not to say that Bitcoin hasn't seen its Own type of uh progression and its own Adoption cycle furthermore the other Cold hard truth that I think is is Difficult for a lot of people to accept I'm just going to say it right 99.9 of the all coin Market Is a scab right I mean that's just what Right it just is what it is it's not all Altcoins and you might say well is it 99.9 kind of high When you're looking at an asset class That has like I don't know what 10 000 Altcoins Most of them are literally just copycat Code from other projects right it's just A copy you just you know you go to this Other project you copy the code you Fork It and you say oh look at my shiny new Altcoin right but a lot of them are just Our money grabs or cash grabs and what Happens is the teams will you know They'll raise money and then eventually
They just sort of Disappear With into The Crypt into the cryptoverse why Because they already got their money Right they get their money and run try Not to fall for these things I'm not Again I'm not saying there's no useful Projects out there okay and I I know a Lot of people say I'm a Bitcoin Maxi I Was clear at the beginning of 2022 that I'm not a maxi but I'm putting my maxi Hat on for a while you know when you go Into a bear market and a recovery year That's just the time to put on a maxi Hat in my opinion because you know when You put on your your Maxi hat you're Basically saying look you know maybe There's some validity to some of these All coins but at least for the time Being Bitcoin makes more sense from our Risk-adjusted returns point of view okay And and that's what we're really after It's not to say that all coins can't go Up It's just to say you know a lot of them Are are going to continue to bleed back Against Bitcoin for months to come and Some of them are just going to be macro Bleeders you know forget oscillators Some of them are not oscillators some of Them just bleed forever back to bitcoin Why why do you think right what happens Next cycle you're going to have new Shiny altcoins that people are gonna Like you know the all coins that you
Liked back in 2021 or you know 2017 Right people from 2017 can tell you you Know there's all coins back then that Were just a relic of of a past cycle in 2021 no one cared about them in the same Way in a future bull market a lot of People aren't going to care about the Coins from 2021 right they're just going To be a relic from a prior cycle and You're going to be you know the OG Investor that's going to be saying oh Wow no one cares about this altcoin Anymore why not because there's been Some massive new development in crypto That's now being capitalized on and no One cares about these relics anymore so You have to be careful with the with the Altcoin market because because so many Of them come and go right they come and Then they just disappear into the Cryptoverse and you never really hear About them again There are a few that have you know have Stood the test of time and I've been Open about that for a long time right a Few have stood the test of time and the First thing to look for is which all Coins have put in new highs more than One cycle right you know Bitcoin has Always put in a new high every single Cycle and I mean that's not to say that It always will but ethereum has and There's been some more coins that have As well so look to that if you're
Finding some coins that you know put in A macro high in 2017 and then put in a Much lower high in 2021 that's not Heading in the right direction right It's just simply not heading in the Right direction so you have to consider That when thinking about the altcoin Market so going back to this the Dominance of Bitcoin excluding Stables Is now at 48.56 percent now when you Include Stables again it's only at 43.8 Percent so there is a bit of a Difference there but It's important to distinguish why we Follow this right It's to say if you only look at this you Might be under the sort of the false Assumption that all these all coins have Held up relatively well against Bitcoin One that's not actually the case when You look at it excluding stable coins Again higher lows for a long time People don't like it sometimes when I Point this out but in reality Bitcoin Dominance excluding Stables has been Putting in higher lows since January 2018. you know so to the to the people That are in the this time is different Camp I've said this before and it's kind Of it was it's kind of surprising to me Too if I'm being honest right it's kind Of surprising to me too Because if you would have asked me back In 2021 I would have thought that the
Dominance was going to go lower but by The end of 2021 when it hadn't happened I basically just had to say nope it's Not going to go any lower right it's Time for us to start going back up the Altcoin market had its chance and it Wasn't able to put in a new low on on The dominance it just simply wasn't it Was unable to and even when you include Stable coins right it was it was simply Unable to put in a new low so despite All the VC money despite all the nfts Despite everything right despite all of That we still saw the dominance Not go as low as it was in 2018 so I Mean that is some relative strength by Bitcoin that I think might go often Missed by a lot of people is because They just look at what's happened Recently but in the context of History The fact that the dominance couldn't Even go below where it was in 2018 Despite all this new money that came in Is very telling that Bitcoin actually is A lot stronger than I think people are Giving it credit for right Now Why does this give us sort of a false Sense why why could this give some People false Social Security on the Altcoin market well they look at them Say well the dominance is really low so That means the altcoin market has held Up well now first of all before we get
Too far into this let me point out that Ethereum has held up better Than I thought it would at this point But it doesn't mean it's going to Forever you know it's been sort of Riding this trend line for a long time And I still have the opinion that's Going to eventually break to the Downside I could be wrong right and if I Am I'll hold my hand up high I mean it's Not like I can hide from it the receipts Are all there when calling for forever But if this breaks down which I think It's going to eventually do there's only One way for the dominance to go right And that's up a lot so Yes I understand the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation has been holding up relatively Well but let's take a look at some of The altcoin market right like let's take A look at Solana because this is a Textbook textbook way for people to lose Their money in the in the cryptoverse You know in a in a bear Market slash Recovery phase uh for Bitcoin right Look at this every time Solana's Bitcoin Valuation is put in a low that low has Acted as resistance after the next dump Right so put in a low pop back up to the Bull market support band get rejected go Put on a new low then this low bounces Back up to the same level that it was it Bounced up to before but now it's Resistance gets rejected by it right
That Wick rejected by where it Previously held support then continued Sustained rejection by the bull market Support band or bear Market resistance Band if you prefer followed by a new low Right and then guess what we bounce back Up where we bounce back up to the bear Market resistance band which also Corresponds to the prior low So what happens you keep getting these Dumps you keep getting people throwing Their money into these all coins because They're getting all these crazy rallies Off the low and you know people are Saying oh who missed the dub but the Reality of the situation is that you Know you're now what over a year 15 Months into into this and Salon of Bitcoin is down 79 to 80 against Bitcoin And and the people that bought it at the Top are celebrating because it had a Recent pump You you can get lost this I don't say This to be you know to be you know Cynical I say it because I myself have Fallen into this trap so many times in The altcoin market you know you Celebrate every single pump look it's a Lot of Bitcoin had a pump here 50 pump Everyone got excited here 84 pump here 146 pump It doesn't mean a thing right I mean Maybe it means something if you if you Cherry pick grabbed the the the wick
Down here and and maybe you bought right There and ignored everything else but The reality is is it's still just been Bleeding against Bitcoin and so once Upon a time a you know 40 000 Satoshi Solana was celebrated and then once upon A time it was a 30 000 Satoshi Solana And then it was a twenty thousand and Then now ever you know you celebrate a Ten thousand Satoshi well what happens Later on this year if it breaks down Below this trend line and goes down to Say a few thousands until she's like Five or six thousand you know so you Have to be careful right and I'm not Saying that it has to bleed forever it You know at some point it'll probably Break out into sort of more of a Sideways range but this is how you can Lose your money in the cryptoverse now At this point I mean I'm not providing Of course any Financial advice I'm not Trying to do anything like that but I've Been warning about the altcoin Reckoning On on all Bitcoin pairs forever so you Know at this point uh you know we're so Far into it it's not going to be the Same as if you had sort of paid Attention to this back over a year ago So I don't really know how much you know How much more downside it has but I will Say this a lot of all coins will bottom Well after Bitcoin does right so like if We look back to 2019 a lot of all coins
On their Bitcoin pairs bottom way after Bitcoin USD about it and so you could Argue that even if even if Salon is Bottomed on its USD pair which is a big F right it still probably hasn't on its Bitcoin pair and so then you'll likely See another move down later on And then maybe eventually it'll finally Break out of this range right So let's pick on a different coin Because it's easy for me to pick on Solana right I don't you know it's not Run I've really spoken a lot about on my Channel so let's pick on what I have you Know and I and I I do this to keep Myself honest but I also do it to show You that you have to remain objective And I've spoken about cardano many times But I've also been very vocal over the Last year that you're also likely going To see the Ada Bitcoin valuation bleed You know And if you think that all altcoins Bottom on their Bitcoin pairs after or Before by the time Bitcoin USD is Bottomed you know Ada didn't get that Memo back in 2019 this here marked the Bitcoin USD bottom when Ada Bitcoin hit Around 877 satoshi's and it bounced back Up but Ada Bitcoin didn't bottom until Q3 of 2019 at around 400 satoshi's That was about another 52 drop on its Bitcoin pair despite the fact that Bitcoin USD had already bottomed it it
Still lost another 50 right so this is How the altcoin market gets you right You you get lulled into a false sense of Security right thinking that oh we Finally popped everyone throws their Money in again at the same resistance Level they've been throwing it into for The last year only for it eventually to Resolve to the downside right and we've Seen that for with many different Cryptocurrencies we're seeing it with Solana we're seeing it with um With cardano uh you could take a look at At a lot of these different Cryptocurrencies I'm sure you'll Probably see something similar with Avalanche right yeah so like Avalanche Has been also slowly bleeding although Recently it has put in a slightly higher Low but this is also a lower high as Well uh I think these are often sort of Continuation patterns so I wouldn't be Surprised if this ultimately resolved to The downside Um and then I think polka dot yeah dot Bitcoin has just been putting it look at This I mean it's just it's just a series Of of lower highs and again it's easy For everyone to get excited every time It rallies on up to the to the bear Market resistance band but once upon a Time it was exciting because it was at Seven thousand satoshi's and then it was Because it was at four thousand and then
It was because it was at three thousand And now it's because it's a little less Than three thousand the altcoin market Has a way of just slowly bleeding back To bitcoin during this stage of the Market cycle it's nothing personal Against the altcoin market it's just the Way it is now there are some altcoins That have done relatively well and as I've mentioned I don't really think of Ethereum as an altcoin but it has held Its own The problem is you know the problem with This though Is I know a lot of people might look at This and say well ethereum's held its Own meaning the dominance is never going To go up what if it just means the grand Finale hasn't happened yet you know Because it hasn't you know because I've Said before by the end of all of this Even the Giants will fall and I still Think we're waiting on The Ether Bitcoin Valuation to make the plunge into the Depths of the crypto verse for us to see That final move by the dominance uh Screaming to the upside is is my general Expectation now Um you know I I will say because a lot Of people have asked well how does this All relate to sort of Bitcoin USD and And the thing about that is you know you Have two different schools of thought Here right let's just go through them
You have one school of thought that says We're sort of in this phase this is the Bear thesis that the dominance is going Up because Bitcoin pumps and then it Comes right back down well it's pumped It pumped and it's starting to come back Down again so that's the bare thesis the Bull thesis is that we're right here and So the dominance is going higher right What do you get in either scenario what Happened in both scenarios Take a look you overlay the Bitcoin Dominance on both scenarios What happened dominance went up in 2018 When it was the bear scenario and it Went up in 2019 when it was the bull Scenario so what does that mean right What it means to me is simply this right It doesn't matter if it's the bull or The bear scenario it's the Dominus is Likely going to go up either way so for Me what it means is any exposure to the Crypto version should mostly just be Limited to bitcoin because I still think The dominance is going to climb higher My guess is that we're neither here I'm guessing we're neither here nor here You might say well why can't you just Pick right it's it's completely Different times right I mean you know We're you can't just compare it to any Specific place and say it has to play Out the same way it's not like it's not Like you could go find a place exactly
Like these two in the prior history and Say that it played out the exact same Way so why should we expect it to this Time and you know it might play out a Completely different way We talked about the worst case scenario For Bitcoin right and that's sort of Following the NASDAQ The you know if you're not familiar with That story it's sort of the 77 drawdown Followed by a 60 rally to the 50 week Right which is what basically what we Have right now The reason why we talked we mentioned That is because again if you go look at What happened what the NASDAQ did uh Back in the.com Crash it was a 77 Drawdown followed by a 60 rally of the 50 week so if that plays out then that Means you know Bitcoin will eventually Roll back over and head to the downside But the point of all of this is to say You know Bitcoins dominance is likely Going to continue much higher uh not Only because there's regulation flood That won't hit Bitcoin in the same way That's going to hit the altcoin market But you also have the stable coin Market That is now potentially getting somewhat Jittery we don't really know how that's Going to play out and so because of all Of this The dominance I think is still poised to Go much higher whether you include
Stable coins or you don't right it's the Argument whether you include them or not If you want to include them I think we're going to still see a Massive break to the upside if you want To exclude them Same thing right so either way you take A moving average of this like say like a 30-day SMA You can see as well sort of slowly Building out of Base here put like a 50-day Or a 90 day Right slowly building out a base and I Again it's more interesting watching Paint dry I'm sure but this is something That we followed for a long time and I Think you are seeing it sort of play out Here in real time so again if you guys If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe give the video thumbs up We again do have into the crypto versus Premium at into the cryptoverse.com see You guys next time bye
