Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing the year-to-date return on Investment or Roi if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Check out into the cryptoverse premium At into the cryptographers.com now I Know we spoke about this metric not too Long ago but I thought it might be Worthwhile to just simply go through it Again so this is the year to date return On investment as a function of time for Bitcoin going back all the way to 2011 But if you isolate 2014 and 2018 you'll See that they were primarily just simply Bear Market years as was 2022 and if you Take the average return as a function of Time for 2014 and 2018 you can actually See that 2022 ended up being essentially Just the average okay now the reason why We looked at that is because it would be Interesting to take a look at what Typically happens after a a primary bear Market year right so you look at 2015 You look at 2019 and of course now we Find ourselves in 2023 all right now the Things that we notice from both prior Years that came after a bear Market is That we had deviations to the upside and We had deviations to the downside right In 2015 we had a very significant Deviation to the downside in January and
In fact it happened on about what January 14th right today is actually January 14th The other interesting thing that is is I I want to draw your attention to is There some level of of this mirroring Each other right so if you look at the Drawdown here that Bitcoin had in 2015 Early on by January 14th so two weeks Into the new year it dropped about 45 You can see the year-to-date Roi by then Is 0.548 meaning it dropped about 45 or So and what's interesting is if you take A look at Bitcoin Um you know recently anyways at least as Measured from November it's actually up About 35 34 35 but year to date you know Bitcoin is uh about 26 27 or so so it Does seem like there's some element of Of it almost just doing the opposite at Least early on of what 2015 was doing Rather than collapsing down immediately Um it's it's going up a lot in the short Term of course now the thing that we Note from both 2015 and 2019 is that Again there were deviations to the Upside and the downside so for instance In 2019 we had a very brief deviation to The downside where Bitcoin went down Below about 10 from materially open and Then it went on a fairly short-term bull Run it only lasted a few months and then It faded that rally for the second half Of the year
Funded in 2015 we deviated to the Downside first and then the the Deviation to the upside actually came You know at the very end of the year Okay so you know my speculation as we've Talked about before is that 2023 is Likely going to see a mix of both right We're probably going to see some Deviations to the upside we'll likely See some deviations to the downside my Guess is that this year will probably be Somewhat choppy where you know we go up For a little bit we go down for a little Bit I don't really think we're gonna go To uh you know I don't I don't think We're at Bitcoins headed to new all-time Highs this year but you should be Prepared for you know for a significant Amounts of volatility I used to think That this year would just be somewhat of A boring year Um but I I do think that this uh you Know the what the FED is doing and and The recession fears and all that sort of Stuff I do think it's going to keep it's Going to keep things fairly intense Right so I think we're going to see a Lot of volatility in in both directions So right now Bitcoin is up this year I Mean if you if you look say year to date It's up about one it's you know it's About 25 or so right so you can see the ROI is 1.25 if we actually take sorry I Clicked on the wrong thing if we
Actually take an average of 2015 so let Me hide them all again and go back to 2015 2019 and 2023. you take an average of 2015 and 2019 this is what you get right So you know fairly Lackluster start in in both cases but by The end of the year Um at least by the middle of the year The ROI on average was around what two And then it sort of faded that into the Third quarter back down to about 1.4 or So again the the average drawdown from Both ended up being what about 25 as a Function of time so again my speculation Is that we will just see deviations to The upside of the downside even though I Know it's really hard to imagine that Right now with Bitcoin going up Um essentially every single day but uh You know the year after the bear Market Year is often is often a recovery year Where sometimes you put in a new low Sometimes you don't and I do think the Main risk right now Um that that is you know sort of Plaguing the crypto various is just Whether we end up going into a recession Or not I think that's probably the main The main risk that we that we face but In the short term you know it's not it's Not really behaving that dissimilar from Things we've seen in the past I mean In 2019 the ROI actually at its you know
At its top as a function of time ended Up being Um you know about two right 2X or so Again that's not that's not measured From the bottom it's just simply or Sorry that's the average if you go to 2019 it was actually a little bit more Than two it was like three three and a Half right three and a half or so uh so If you if you measure it from the Beginning of 2019 it actually gave you a Max upside of three now don't really Think we're gonna go up three and a half X this year uh but we could we could Certainly spend some time in between These levels and and sort of just Spending a year chopping before Hopefully getting moving a little bit More in in 2024 but that's generally you Know generally what I see right now it's Interesting if you actually zoom in on On 2023 it's like it's just straight up Right so you see like the sort of like Parabolic move here in the short term Where it gets started off slowly and Then it really starts to pick up pace And then the higher it goes the more Likely people are to then fomo in at a a New local top right and then it might It'll probably get sold off for a little Bit and then and then there'll be people Wishing they hadn't flow mode in right So you really have to come up with a Strategy that just simply works for you
Over the Long Haul rather than trying to Um you know pick the exact like you know The exact bottom or anything like that I Think just come up with a strategy that Makes sense for you but again right now Bitcoin is is currently sitting just Below Um twenty one thousand dollars and as we Talked about yesterday the dominance is At least moving higher which is a good Thing but I did want to just provide That update on on where the ROI is as a Function of time for 2023 compared to 2019 and of course 2015. right so far This is the best year right out of those Out of those other two years right so Far as a function of time this is doing The best we'll see how it continues to Transpire throughout the year thank you Guys for tuning in make sure you Subscribe give the video a thumbs up and We'll see you guys next time bye
