Thank you [Music] To the coin Bureau Weekly News Roundup Here are the headlines in crypto this Week Crypto rally accelerates coins and Tokens continue to Trend higher despite Technical analysis indicators suggesting That a correction is imminent when will We know for sure that the recovery is Real Cardano node scare half of cardano's Nodes go offline shortly after Charles Hoskinson considers acquiring coindesk And shortly before the launch of the de Jed stablecoin what gives Biden on crypto the White House Publishes a roadmap to regulate the Crypto industry in response to ftx's Collapse how could this affect the Market Industry scrutiny intensifies the SEC Starts questioning Wall Street companies About crypto custody while Moody's Begins building a scoring system for Stable coins everything you need to know Inflation and earnings investors Anxiously await Q4 earnings reports from Apple Amazon and others why this could Have serious implications for crypto And Ben Cowan gives us his take on What's happening out there in the crypto Verse all this and More in just a moment Hello and thank you for tuning in my
Name is Guy this is educational content Not Financial advice and here are Today's top stories Last week the crypto Market continued to Inch higher well-known projects like Aptos and Phantom saw the largest gains And so too did lesser-known ones like Threshold and ecash note that we have Started keeping track of these pumps in Our official telegram group link is in The description Now what makes the current rally Different from previous ones is that It's been mostly Bitcoin driven BTC has Consistently seen larger gains than most Large cap altcoins when historically It's been vice versa this new trend is Reflected in bitcoin's dominance and can Also be clearly seen in altcoin trading Pairs against BTC namely eth BTC as I Mentioned in My Weekly Newsletter Yesterday eth has been looking Abnormally weak against BTC of late this Is both confusing and concerning Considering that this has apparently Been an institution-driven rally it's Confusing because eth was assumed to be More appealing to institutions after Ethereum transitioned to proof of stake The continued preference for BTC over Eth is thus concerning because it Suggests institutions aren't as certain About eth for whatever reason this could Be because of concerns around ethereum's
Upcoming Shanghai upgrade where Invalidators will be allowed to claim Their eth stakes and staking rewards it Could also be because of concerns around A potential Crackdown on another large Cap altcoin which could create Uncertainty for eth More about what Shanghai means for eth Using the link down below Anyways the reason is arguably Irrelevant because it looks like this BCC driven rally is finally about to run Out of steam btc's daily chart reveals That positive trading volume has been on The decline the macd indicator also Suggests that a trend reversal is Imminent It's a similar story on btc's weekly Chart where positive trading volume is Likewise slowing down more importantly Though the 50-week moving average is About to cross the 200-week moving Average from above this would create a Death cross that could push the entire Crypto Market lower Funnily enough the outcome of these Technical analysis Trends will occur Sometime this week now this is no Coincidence considering that the Federal Reserve will be announcing how much it's Raising interests by on Wednesday you Can expect Market volatility to Accelerate as we approach the day The FED is also unanimously expected to
Raise interest rates by 0.25 percent Make no mistake though even if the rate Hike meets investor expectations fed Chairman Jerome Powell could Collectively kick investors in the groin With his hawkish rhetoric Jerome has Done this before and many believe it's Likely given that the FED is unhappy With the recent rally across all markets It's also important to remember that There's no shortage of crypto specific Factors that could spell trouble for the Market an example of such a factor would Be the outage of a major smart contract Cryptocurrency and it sounds like Cardano recently came dangerously close To this outcome Depending on your Source up to 60 of Nodes on the cardano blockchain were Knocked offline last weekend To my knowledge this is the first time Something like this has happened since Cardano's main net went live in 2017. The root cause is reportedly still being Investigated by cardano's developers but The blockchain continued to operate Despite the node outage albeit with Degraded performance not only that but Most of the nodes that were knocked Offline automatically rejoined the Network shortly afterwards without Intervention As impressive as this is it does beg the Question of what could have caused the
Outage a surge in transactions on the Blockchain appears to be out of the Question that's because the number of Daily transactions on cardano has been More or less steady over the last few Months Another possibility is that cardano's Recent vessel hard Fork contains some Unforeseen bugs that caused issues for Blockchain nodes this would make sense Given that vassal focused on scalability That is speed Cryptocurrency blockchains tend to get Less secure or less decentralized as They get faster There is a third possible cause however And that's that cardano was targeted by A bad actor if this is the case then the Question would be why Well it could be because cardano founder Charles hoskinson was considering Acquiring coindesk and some powerful People don't want that to happen Given the intense competition we've seen Between stablecoin issuers however I Suspect that it's much more likely that The motivation for an attack on cardano Assuming that it occurred at all would Be to stop or at least delay the launch Of cardano's upcoming decentralized Stablecoin to Jed after all the last Thing that centralized stablecoin Issuers want is for a decentralized Alternative to come along and steal
Their Thunder now in contrast to make a Dow's die which is mostly backed by Circles usdc de Jed will be entirely Backed by Ada making it truly Decentralized and impossible to control Or influence this is more significant Than you think because a truly Decentralized stablecoin would be next To impossible to regulate This means that a stablecoin like to Jed Would not be subject to the same Restrictions that Regulators are Planning on imposing on the likes of Usdt and usdc this would give a stable Coin like the Jed a huge advantage over Its competitors which would result in More adoption and growth note that the Jed's launch was scheduled for late January now I must stress that this is All speculation but if there was ever a Reason for a bad actor to attack cardano This would be it speaking of crypto Regulation the White House recently Published a statement about Cryptocurrency titled quote the Administration's roadmap to mitigate Cryptocurrencies risks now as far as I Can tell it's a de facto response to the Collapse of FTX and Alameda and a part 2 To a previous crypto statement more About that previous statement in the Description Now the difference between this Statement and the previous one is that
This one is much shorter and more to the Point the authors start by highlighting All the bad stuff that's happened in the Crypto Market over the last year they Revealed that the White House spent the Year assessing the risks of Cryptocurrency they rightfully take Issue with misleading claims from Cryptocurrency platforms and so-called Cryptocurrency promoters they seem to Imply that these misleading claims are About as bad as North Korean hackers Stealing crypto The authors also reveal that U.S Regulators are in the process of Launching so-called public awareness Programs to warn about the risks of Cryptocurrency they encourage such Campaigns especially as they pertain to Private financial institutions Interested in crypto but quote the Events of the past year underscore that More is needed the authors call on Congress to pass crypto regulations that Separate the industry from the Traditional Financial system notably Pension funds now this is a not so Subtle reference to Fidelity which is Offering BTC in its 401K accounts the Statement concludes by saying that the White House will continue quote driving Forward the digital assets framework With the help of Congress the thing is That the current administration's
Digital assets framework isn't entirely Clear and seems to consist of Regulation By enforcement via the SEC as with Cardano's peculiar no doubtage one can't Help but wonder why the administration Is making this announcement at this Particular time it could simply be Because it's the beginning of a new Political year and they want to make Their crypto intentions clear Alternatively it's quite possible that It could be a rallying cry for Regulators to begin a collective Crackdown on cryptocurrency this is in Part because the US government is short On money because of the debt ceiling Being reached meaning that it would be Hard to finance any new crypto Legislation It's also in part because the partisan Politics that caused the debt ceiling to Stay where it is means that it's Unlikely that Congress will come to Consensus about cryptocurrency either it Also means that raising the debt ceiling Is likely going to be the number one Priority of the current Administration The good news is that a focus on the Debt ceiling means that cryptocurrency Is unlikely to get much Congressional Attention anytime soon The bad news is that the absence of any Clear crypto legislation means that the Regulation by enforcement we've seen so
Far is very likely to continue if you Need evidence of this look no further Than the recent Revelation that the SEC Has been actively investigating crypto Custody on Wall Street for months According to Reuters the sec's Investigation has accelerated ever since FTX and Alameda research collapsed in November analysts believe that the SEC Is trying to find any Wall Street Institutions that are holding any Cryptos it considers to be Securities on Behalf of their customers if I Understand correctly a Securities Designation would require such cryptos To be stored with specific custodians Consider that most major cryptocurrency Exchanges have Standalone crypto custody Services also consider that sometimes These custody Services hold Cryptocurrencies that the Affiliated Exchanges can't list because they're too Similar to Securities on that note an Exchange's custody arm adding support For a coin or token is often considered To be a precursor to an exchange listing Now I'm doing my best not to name names Here but I think you can guess which Exchanges I'm talking about The sec's crypto custody investigation Could cause trouble for them And it's not just exchanges either SEC chairman Gary Gensler has said that Some stable coins are securities
This makes zero sense because an asset Is a security when there's an Expectation of profit coming from an Identifiable third party and there are No expectations of profit with stable Coins In any case credit rating service Moody's has taken it upon itself to Create a scoring system for stable coins Moody's stablecoin scoring system is Reportedly in its early stages of Development and it will basically tell Investors which stable coins are the Most and least legit now call me crazy But I have a feeling that stable coins With close connections to Wall Street Such as circles usdc will be ranked Pretty high conversely stable coins with Less connections to Wall Street such as Tethers usdt and any decentralized Stablecoin will be ranked pretty low Regardless many have taken Moody Stablecoin's coring system as a sign That aggressive regulations aren't very Far behind this wouldn't be surprising Considering that stable coins are direct Competitors to Central Bank digital Currencies or cbdcs then again they may Soon become one and the same more about Synthetic cbdcs in the description Anywho a Crackdown on any one of the Largest stable coins would obviously do Serious damage to the crypto Market Tether is objectively the most at risk
Of a Crackdown because it's not based in The United States and there have long Been concerns about the quality and Quantity of its reserves although tether Has proven time and time again that it Has the capacity to rapidly Cash Out Billions of dollars of usdt the scrutiny Remains but who knows maybe the FED will Pivot on Wednesday and all this crypto Fud will magically go away In all seriousness it seems that the Inflation the FED has been so fiercely Fighting is starting to come down Last Friday the personal consumption Expenditures price index or pce Statistics for December were released And printed a solid five percent for Context the pce is the fed's favorite Inflation figure moreover a five percent Pce isn't far off from the fed's Terminal rate which is fed speak for the Highest level that interest rates will Go the terminal rate is 5 and Jerome has Made it clear that the FED will pause or Pivot once inflation is significantly Below interest rates current interest Rates are 4.25 the catch is that Jerome Also made it clear that interest rates Need to be higher than inflation across The entire yield curve if you watch Saturday's video about the U.S Government's potential debt default You'll know that the yield curve is Inverted meaning that longer term
Interest rates are much lower what this Means is that inflation is going to have To fall a lot more before the FED starts To chill out This of course assumes that the FED Hasn't switched its focus to Unemployment if this is the case then The markets are in for a lot more pain Because unemployment in the U.S remains At near record lows you'd be forgiven For thinking otherwise thanks to all the Headlines about Job Cuts in the tech and Finance sectors the thing is that the Job market is a lot larger than big Tech And Wall Street other sectors are Actively hiring and that's keeping Unemployment low even so this could Start to change in the coming months as Earnings come in below expectations and Shareholders demand that CEOs make Massive job cuts to ensure continued Solvency unfortunately bed bath and Beyonds management missed the memo Because the retailer now faces Bankruptcy With the exception of outliers such as Tesla earnings for publicly traded Companies are starting to come down last Week's loser was Intel which reported Dismal Q4 earnings wiping 8 billion Dollars from its market cap many other Blue Chip stocks missed earnings Estimates as well Investors are anxiously awaiting this
Week's round of earnings because Reporting companies include the likes of Apple Amazon which has been cutting lots Of jobs Google's parent company alphabet Which recently cut six percent of its Workforce and meta which has also been Cutting lots of jobs in case that didn't Make it clear enough Q4 earnings for These large caps will probably come in Significantly below expectations even if They don't any indication that future Revenue is at risk means that their Stocks could still crash or move Sideways the same way microsofts did After its Q4 earnings as most of you Know the crypto Market is highly Correlated to the stock market and the Top five stocks in the S P 500 Index are Apple Saudi aramco Microsoft alphabet And Amazon if Apple alphabet and Amazon All come up short on their Q4 earnings While the FED goes full Hawk crypto will Go much lower okay that's quite enough From me now let's get the thoughts of Ben Cowan as another week gets underway Ben over to Uso Hey guys thanks for having me pleasure To be here as always I first wanted to Start out by looking at an on-chain Metric namely the Huddle waves or total Waves which whatever you prefer one of The reasons I like this metric it's an On-chain metric but you can get a Glimpse into long-term holder behavior
And short-term holder Behavior now in This instance I want to hone in here on Long-term holder Behavior to figure out What are they doing if you notice in the 2017 rally long-term holders were Becoming a smaller and smaller portion Or percentage of representing the Overall supply of Bitcoin same thing Over here in 2020 and early 2021 right Now you're not seeing that okay it's Still more or less going sideways and I Think that it helps show where Bitcoin Is right now likely within the context Of its of its Market cycle So for instance when you go into the Mania phase of a bull run long-term Holders are are quick to get out they You know they made the investment years Ago they're quick to get out or at least Six months ago but right now this metric Is still actually trending higher it's Actually currently at around 75 76 Percent or so right now one of the Reasons I I think this is useful is Because despite the rally that Bitcoin Has had by the way I think the third Best January on record assuming we close At this level Long-term holders aren't really Flinching and I think that is because of Where we likely are within the context Of an overall Market cycle if you look At the ROI as measured from the last Peak and compare it to the last two
Cycles so if we look at the 2021 Peak And look at the ROI as measured from Then compare it to the 2013 Peak and Take that out to the following Peak and Then the 2017 Peak and take that out to The following Peak this is what it looks Like So you know you have these two lines Which represent the the last two cycles From Peak to Peak and then the green Line is from the last peak in 2021 and Where are we where we are right now my Guess is that it's going to be A recovery year for Bitcoin where it Chops up a bit right we go up we go down And hopefully by you know hopefully as We as we get later into the year early Next year right around the Bitcoin Having we can start to see a bit more Stronger move to the upside but make no Mistake about it I mean you know this Move right now by Bitcoin is is somewhat Reminiscent of of what we experienced Since 2019 the reason why again that's Interesting is if you look at the the Huddle waves for long-term holders both In 2015 And in 2019 they didn't really change a Whole lot Despite You know despite whatever moves We had Bitcoin went up 4X in 2019 Bitcoin went up about 2x in 2015. these Did not really see a massive change in The percentage of Bitcoin held by
Long-term holders so I think that you Know when you look at where this is Right now It helps sort of confirm that we're also In this phase over here within the Context of the current cycle And then furthermore if you look at Monthly returns so if you discretize Bitcoin's returns monthly one of the Things you'll notice is there's some Very familiar patterns that play out so In 2014 we had eight red months in in 2018 we had nine red months in 2022 we Had eight red months right so these Primary bear Market years we see eight Or nine red months but if you look at 2015 we only had five red months if you Look at 2019 we had six red months so Typically after we have the primary bear Market years of 2014 and 2018 we had a Pretty choppy following year so we saw That in 2015 and we saw that in 2019. my Gas is we're likely going to see Something similar in 2023 where we're Going to have plenty of positive months Probably also plenty of negative months As well Is is likely what we're gonna see just Based on the context of History so you Know the Bulls will get some months the Bears will get some months and and then Hopefully we can build out of that as we Go into 2024 and 2025 again it's always Important to remember that just because
It happened like this in a prior cycle Does not mean it has to play out in the Same way but it is interesting that it Does continue to play out these cyclical Behaviors of Bitcoin in terms of 2014 2018 and 2022 and 2015 2019 and Potentially 2023. so something to continue to keep An eye on and again we it's important I Think to look at all this in the context Of other indicators try to figure out Where we think we are and and go from There thanks for having me pleasure to Be here as always I look forward to Seeing you again next week Thank you Ben and that is all for Today's coin Bureau weekly crypto review So if you enjoyed it you know what to do Hit the like button subscribe button and Bell icon too if you're looking to Maximize your gains during the bear Market the coin Bureau deals page is Where you should go you can find the Link to that resource and many others in The description below thank you so much For watching and I will see you all in Next week's episode [Music]
